In March 2016, Pat McCrory signed North Carolina's bathroom bill into law. That November, he became the first North Carolina governor to lose reelection since 1850.
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Nowhere in the nearly 3,000 words this NYT column devotes to the supposed risk to Democrats of supporting trans rights will you find a single reference to either poll data on the subject or the outcomes of elections where trans rights have been at issue.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/18/opinion/transgender-rights-democrats.html …
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In Louisiana this year, gubernatorial candidate Ralph Abraham cut an ad in which he made a point of saying there were only two genders. He lost.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YkAm6NY8oU&feature=emb_title …
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In Kentucky, again this year, Republicans cut an ad against Andy Beshear saying that trans people would destroy girl's sports. A headline from the Federalist: "How One Simple Ad About Transgender Athletes Could Win Matt Bevin His Election" Bevin lost.https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=gb870EcuY5s&feature=emb_title …
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In June, the Public Religion Research Institute put out new poll data on trans issues. Some of it is unsurprising. A 55% majority of Americans, for instance, say there are only two genders.https://www.prri.org/research/americas-growing-support-for-transgender-rights/ …
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But here's the data on bills that would force trans people "to use bathrooms consistent with their sex assigned at birth" like the bill Republicans pushed in North Carolina. A 47% plurality of Americans *oppose* this. 45% support it.pic.twitter.com/R23RUygHB7
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It's true that support for bathroom bills has ticked up from 2017, owing to increases in support from the most conservative demographic groups in the country. But that has neither toppled Democratic candidates nor put a dent in how Americans view trans rights more broadly.
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For instance, a clear 63% majority of Americans still oppose banning trans people from the military, the issue here that Trump has actually tried to claim.pic.twitter.com/A56yVhjim3
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There's other material here that might be jarring to people used to reading concern trolling about all this. A clear 56% majority of Americans, for instance, is comfortable with trans elementary school teachers, and nearly half say they'd be comfortable with having a trans child.pic.twitter.com/sSAyPf0c1m
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Morally, all of this is beside the point. It would be correct for Democrats to support trans rights even if doing so were riskier than it appears to be. But it's worth underscoring how empirically thin punditry on this subject tends to be.
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So when you hear people hand-wringing about trans issues, understand that what you're hearing is moral and political cowardice - babble from commentators whose judgment cannot be trusted or leaders who cannot be relied upon to fight for anything worth fighting for.
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