Probably first one to identify the problem of unrealistic (high #coal) assumptions behind RCP8.5 was @jritch.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544217314597 … He even got high-level media coverage, by @eroston https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/misleading-coal-estimates-may-have-skewed-climate-projections … But in academia, who really cares about a Ph.D student's findings?
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Then
@RogerPielkeJr developed an interest, mainly in dominant use of RCP8.5 in impact studies. https://issues.org/opening-up-the-climate-policy-envelope/ … Then more pieces, and on Twitter https://rogerpielkejr.com/2020/01/27/quick-links-to-my-recent-rcp8-5-series-of-articles/ … But when it comes from Roger, not much of a chance that mainstream will acknowledge the problem 3/npic.twitter.com/Tp4dM2u5il
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Meanwhile,
@hausfath joined the debate, w/ a@carbonbrief explainer. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario … Now academics really start to take it seriously, but there's no easy way to deal with it (e.g., because of path dependencies in modelling). But it wasn't a peer-reviewed paper anyway 4/npic.twitter.com/9iU8Ckzqjq
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So, what's next? Given their engagement on Twitter, I'd expect more from
@hausfath or@Peters_Glen, or maybe somebody else. They are what Pierre Bourdieu called "established heretics" (in 'Homo Academicus') - often seen as troublemakers, but to powerful to completely ignore. 5/npic.twitter.com/rE40T7oVFF
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I guess it will take some more years until more powerful insiders, belonging to the core modelling groups, reformulate the heretics' earlier criticism and show practical ways out of it Basically the same happened in the CDR/BECCS debate https://twitter.com/Oliver_Geden/status/1221801559379582977 … 6/n
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Meanwhile, the STS community will have a field day, some only commenting from the sidelines, some trying to conduct serious empirical studies, like these https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629619304633 … & https://sciencetechnologystudies.journal.fi/article/view/65031 … Focus might move from IAMs to other MIPs 7/npic.twitter.com/qX2Dw5XqJT
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The visible turning point will be the AR7 version of this article http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/ and the modelling practice following from there 8/npic.twitter.com/P3UvvHgf4Z
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Looking back from 2030, RCP8.5 might seem like just another academic debate. There's criticism, there's responsiveness, there's progress. But there are also power structures (like in any professional field). Hopefully, some social scientists will manage to track the moves 9/end
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I'm missing the point. Can someone offer a TLDR summary?
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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