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@OBR_UK

Official Twitter channel of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR provides independent and authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances.

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  1. Dec 23

    The Chancellor has set the date for the Spring 2022 forecast: Wednesday 23 March That day we will update our outlook for the economy and public finances.

    9 retweets 9 likes
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  2. Dec 21

    Budget deficit continues to fall sharply – read the latest commentary at

    2 replies 5 retweets 5 likes
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  3. Dec 20

    Cyhoeddwyd y data alldro cyntaf ar gyfer cyfraddau treth incwm Cymru yn yr haf. Sut wnaeth ein rhagolygon ymdopi? I ddechrau, fe wnaethom oramcangyfrif cyfran Cymru o refeniw ledled y DU, yna tanamcangyfrifwyd derbyniadau incwm y DU yn fwy diweddar.

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  4. Dec 20

    The first outturn data for Welsh rates of income tax was published in the summer. How did our forecasts fare? Forecast errors have narrowed over time. We initially overestimated the Welsh share of UK-wide revenues, then more recently underestimated the UK income receipts.

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  5. Dec 20

    Mae newidiadau pandemig yn nosbarthiad prisiau trafodiadau eiddo wedi rhoi hwb i refeniw. Mae twf trafodiadau wedi bod yn gryfach yn y bandiau prisiau uwch sy’n fwy cyfoethog o ran treth A fydd hyn yn parhau? Mae ein rhagolwg yn tybio ei fod dros dro, ond mae hynny'n ansicr iawn

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  6. Dec 20

    Pandemic-induced shifts in the price distribution of property transactions have boosted revenues. Transactions growth has been stronger in the higher – more tax-rich – price bands. Will this last? Our forecast assumes it’s temporary, but that’s very uncertain.

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  7. Dec 20

    Yn ein rhagolwg trethi Cymru diweddaraf, a gomisiynwyd gan Lywodraeth Cymru, rydym wedi diwygio ein rhagolygon ar gyfer trethi Cymru diolch i'r adferiad cryfach o'r pandemig coronafeirws. Adroddiad wedi'i gyhoeddi heddiw

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  8. Dec 20

    In our latest Welsh taxes outlook, commissioned by the , we have revised up our forecasts for Welsh taxes thanks to the stronger recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Report published today

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  9. Dec 16

    We thank Prof Sir Charlie Bean for his service on the Committee. His expertise, wisdom, and support have been invaluable to the OBR over the last five eventful years. We have been extraordinarily fortunate to have been waypoint on his 40-year journey in public service.

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  10. Dec 16

    The has today confirmed the appointment of Prof. David Miles to the Budget Responsibility Committee. We all look forward to welcoming David to the OBR in January.

    1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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  11. Dec 16

    Prof David Miles appeared at the yesterday for his consent hearing to join the Budget Responsibility Committee Watch the session here on ParliamentTV:

    🗣️On Wednesday we’re holding a consent hearing with Professor David Miles, the Government’s preferred candidate to join the Budget Responsibility Committee. Watch the session live from 2.15pm👇
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  12. Dec 10

    Have your say! We want to hear your thoughts on the Economic and fiscal outlook – our Budget day document – so we can ensure our work meets your needs.

    1 retweet 1 like
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  13. Dec 9

    We have also updated our tax and spending ‘ready reckoners’ that show how the public finances could be affected by changes in selected economic determinants of our fiscal forecast.

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  14. Dec 9

    New methodology for illustrating the uncertainty around our central forecast means we can better capture the history of shocks to the economy & public finances & provide a fuller assessment of the probability of the Govt meeting its fiscal targets

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  15. Dec 9

    Today we have also published monthly profiles for receipts, spending and borrowing in 2021-22 consistent with our October 2021 fiscal forecast. These provide a reference point against which to monitor incoming data:

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  16. Dec 9

    So how does our forecast accuracy compare with the pre-OBR Treasury forecasts after these huge pandemic-related errors? The OBR still has a significantly lower median forecast error for GDP and borrowing, but our mean errors are now closer given the scale of the pandemic shock.

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  17. Dec 9

    The pandemic led to the largest year-ahead borrowing forecast error on record of 12.5% of GDP, or £268bn, against our March 2020 forecast. More than ¾ of this error is explained by pandemic-related government spending with the remainder from lower receipts.

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  18. Dec 9

    Back in March 2020, before the global reach of the pandemic became apparent, our forecast assumed only a 0.1% hit to GDP in 2020. Very far from the actual hit of c.10%. After that, we were quick to realise its severity, but were consistently too pessimistic relative to others.

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  19. Dec 9

    The pandemic delivered one of the largest peacetime shocks to the UK economy in history and the largest forecast errors on record. Our Forecast evaluation report, which reviews our forecasts over the first year of the pandemic, has just been published.

    2 replies 1 retweet
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  20. Dec 9

    New Forecast evaluation report published 11am today. Follow us for highlights 📊

    The pandemic has, not surprisingly, made it even harder to predict the future. But how has the changing course of the pandemic affected our forecasts and are there any lessons we can learn as forecasters? Report published 11am Thur 📔
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