Forecasting newsletter for events that happened this September.
Conversation
Personally, as a non-American I view the CFTC debacle about whether to permit US citizens to trade on prediction markets with some amusement: America is supposed to be the land of the free, no?
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Still, I was happy to marginally help with this very thorough letter to the CFTC (link goes to a download): comments.cftc.gov/Handlers/PdfHa
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Manifold continues to develop stuff rapidly. They have some experimental stuff @
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We announced the results of the Squiggle experimentation prize. Congrats to for their first prize for
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and to Erich Grunewald for
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We also announced a $5k competition. Probably high expected value (monetary and otherwise) to participate:
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The FTX Future Fund has a giant $1M+ prize for people shifting their probabilities on AI timelines and dangers. ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the
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has started a newsletter that combines analysis of a newsworthy topic with an invitation and a prompt for readers to forecast on a related event. The newsletter then reports readers’ forecasts and resolves them when time comes due.
Nostalgebraist looks at AI forecasting one year in nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/695521414
Hanania argues that the problem with polling might be unfixable
Dan Luu looks at the track record of futurists danluu.com/futurist-predi This conflicts with some earlier analyses. I'd recommend an adversarial collaboration
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