Updating the look at how much Trump overperfomed the 538 averages: Nationally: 4.6 WI: 7.8 OH: 7.2 IA: 7 FL: 5.9 MI: 5.1 TX: 4.6 PA: 3.5 NC: 3.1 NV: 2.9 AZ: 2.3 MN: 2.3 GA: 0.9 RCP was closer than 538 in every key state by an average of 2.1 points per state listed above.
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Here's how much Trump overperformed polls in 2020 vs 2016 using the RealClearPolitics average: TX: 7.1 FL: 3.5 NV: 3.2 OH: 1.1 AZ: 1.1 IA: -0.3 WI: -1.1 GA: -1.6 NC: -1.7 MI: -2.5 PA: -2.8 Most of the polling misses were similar to 2016 with the exception of TX/FL/NV.
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I think the national average will eventually end up under a 3% miss. The WI miss was very surprising.
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That WI number has to include that insane poll which had Biden up by 17 there.
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Its almost like PA, GA, and MN are outliers.

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this average takes into account the good pollsters. even this is wrong.
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This doesn’t look like science
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I’d like to see it in every state, not just battlegrounds. I’ve looked at CA, CO, MA, WA, OR and the polling averages seem to have been remarkably accurate which leads me to think that at least a share of inaccuracies in some states may stem from suppression efforts.
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