Nouriel RoubiniVerified account

Umm... the scalability trilemma was about scalable blockchains, not PoS; those are two separate topics. And the trilemma was never an impossibility result, it was claiming that getting 3 of 3 is *hard*.

And the design is basically done and we're in the development stages now.

You are still responding to this clown? He claims "kids" shouldn't talk about economics and monetary policy as they can't know nothing about it, yet gives pseudo-informed commentaries and criticisms on distributed systems and computer science. Go figure.

Double negative much? “Can’t know anything”.

Couldn't bother not to correct it. ;)

Why are you engaging this guy.? For those of us who were around in the pre-GFC period you were the lead and early voice in sounding the alarm on the housing and mortgage-backed crisis PERIOD.

Nouriel did an amazing job in the lead up to the financial crisis, not just making generic bearish claims, but providing great detail on the how's and why's. Contrast his work from that time with his work today (on crypto, or anything else) and it seems like a different person.

He was substantially early. Again, I give him props not for market timing but for fundamental analysis. He didn't make a bear call, he made a very specific call about how the real estate and financial markets would unravel.

What do you think we all see in crypto that he (seemingly) misses? How can his interpretation be so 180 from ours?

I think he's partly trolling and brand building. Partly, he's skeptical of the demand for, or value of, money outside government control.

Honest question: how does one become wealthy from crypto?

Honest answer: same as with money - some do and some dont.

I thought #crypto was supposed to be uncorrelated to broad markets??? Seems programming nerds and tinhat peeps don't really know what they're talking about.

I don't know what "supposed to be" means here. For historical correlations, you can run regressions yourself easily.

Of course I can. But it periods of chaos, while correlations do break down, those with a "supposed" negative correlation should outperform. For example, 2s outperforming stocks. Gold outperforming stocks.

Treasuries are a great example. There have been long historical periods of positive correlation, and long historical periods of negative correlation. Complex topic. There's never been a consensus among crypto enthusiasts of forward looking negative correlation.

Come on Ari, it's the "asset" class of the end of days peeps. In other words when fiat dies, crypto will survive. That's the epitome of negative correlation.

Negative correlation with fiat...not equities. In recessions, cash becomes more valuable generally, so a negative correlation with fiat would predict crypto falls in average recessions.

2/ and the prediction even on that front is never made about day to day or even year to year market pricing of fiat. It's specifically viewed as negatively correlated in the tail scenario, kind of like CDS on AAA debt.

CDS on AAA is way cheaper than crypto that 1) is barely a medium of exchange, and 2) fraught with fraud. Seems like tether will finally take down bitfinex?