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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
My Core Equity & Master Flow Models are deteriorating – but not enough to trigger a Buy signal. Historically this was an unstable condition, with very poor & highly volatile 1-3M returns. No change in view since mid-January – remaining extremely patient.
$ES_F$SPX$SPYpic.twitter.com/JtimNCKaKu
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Wuhan's first hospital built specially for receiving coronavirus patients completed on Sunday after 10 days of speedy construction. It will be managed by China's military medical system and start operation on Monday.pic.twitter.com/bXYkfaFvEA
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
They call it disinfection? Indonesia... no words.pic.twitter.com/FUS85aJ5n1
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
The US Yield Curve is inverted again... 10-Year Treasury Yield: 1.51% 3-Month Treasury Yield: 1.55%pic.twitter.com/LvkaLDZnt5
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Microsoft revenue up 13.7% over the past year, its 10th straight quarter of double-digit YoY revenue growth.
$MSFTpic.twitter.com/MhqCmWr8UR
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Microsoft Revenue (Billions)... 2019: 134 2018: 118 2017: 102 2016: 95 2015: 88 2014: 93 2013: 83 2012: 73 2011: 72 2010: 67 2009: 59 2008: 62 2007: 58 2006: 46 2005: 41 2004: 38 2003: 34 2002: 31 2001: 27 2000: 24 1999: 22 1998: 18 1997: 14 1996: 9 1995: 7 1994: 5
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
S&P Daily Sentiment (10dma) hit one of the highest levels ever and *turned down* last week. Odds remain heavily skewed for a sharp correction into February-March.
$ES_F$SPX$SPYpic.twitter.com/d4oOsKEa4a
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
One of my most important Core Risk Models has *turned down* from a historic overbought condition. Since 2009, most signals led to sharp pullbacks or big corrections in Stocks. The next 1-2M remain at potential high risk of a big Tactical regime shift.
$ES_F$SPX$SPYpic.twitter.com/4TdyJbuPt2
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
$VIX Seller P&L Model (updated from Jan 8). Hit one of the most extreme levels in a decade and collapsed. Risk remains significant – BASE CASE look for reset to target zone (market takes all profits back + more). Long way until then – remain on high alert in the coming weeks.pic.twitter.com/jWOlIGSeSW
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Happy Friday... and 73 days without a 1% decline in
$SPX$SPY$ES_F. Monday will tie for 4th longest in 20+ years (Oct 9 2018). After that only the "century" streaks remain... reminding us that markets are *masters* of the unthinkable. Have a nice weekend.pic.twitter.com/wTetxWTeX9
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Put/Call Ratio 50dma in the top 1.6% most overbought days in 20 years. Few days ever reached this level. In 7 out of 8 cases, Stocks topped immediately or had already peaked. Odds remain heavily skewed for a sharp correction into February-March.
$ES_F$SPX$SPYpic.twitter.com/KkqEFOkfU8
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
1. S&P 500: All-Time High 2. Dow: All-Time High 3. Nasdaq: All-Time High 4. Home Prices: All-Time High 5. Expansion: longest in history (126 months) 6. Unemployment: 50-yr low (3.5%) 7. Job growth: longest in history (110 months) 8. Fed: expected to cut rates for 4th time in 2020pic.twitter.com/2drPiHAHQ7
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Bullish or bearish? I have a valuation metric for you. As always, valuation is a function of how you’re measuring it; but also, it’s as much a sentiment indicator as it is a fundamental indicator.pic.twitter.com/2AEw9dzwPV
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Closing out the week with a Special Note on markets: The first of a Series – where I'll focus all my efforts in coming weeks. The time has come and it's important to do it. Extreme & Historic Complacency Building in Markets New from Macro Charts blog: https://macrocharts.blog/2020/01/10/extreme-historic-complacency-building-in-markets …pic.twitter.com/DjfKAIAVfg
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
Sentiment (updated).
$VIX DSI dropped to 9 yesterday. In the last 50 days, this was the 9th day VIX Bulls fell to 10% or less. Since 2013 (data start), this streak happened only 7 other times – in 6 cases$VIX spiked to 20+ and the$SPX pulled back 3-7% over several weeks.pic.twitter.com/RdVGKyYWMW
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
The S&P 500's P/E ratio moved from 16.5 at the start of 2019 to 19.4 at year end, the largest multiple expansion (+17.1%) since 2001.pic.twitter.com/2zHPtNZTVc
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
S&P. A significant number of Stocks (34%) have triggered MACD Sell signals. Similar large spikes usually led to market pullbacks/Volatility, particularly in recent years. Any more deterioration (probably near 40%) could trigger the core decline.
$ES_F$SPX$SPYpic.twitter.com/Gk7jrWyXgA
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
My Core Equity & Master Flow Models have turned down from extreme overbought levels. Historically this was an unstable condition for Stocks, with very poor 1-3M returns. Most signals also led to higher Volatility – this puts 1Q20 at full risk of a bigger regime shift.pic.twitter.com/Yi6uKpbCZe
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
1/ I’ve been to war, twice. Iraq in ‘09 and Afghanistan in 2011. I am just a fucking ER doc. But it was there, in the deserts far,far from home, that I made my bones as a newly board certified ER doc. It is around that time, I think that I lost my capacity to feel joy.
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Apple North proslijedio/la je Tweet
“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism.” – Jeremy Grantham, 2006pic.twitter.com/Xw2JHAe0ZS
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