Noble Francis

@NobleFrancis

Economics Director , PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor of Construction Economics at UCL Bartlett. Tweets on economics, housing & construction.

Once of Sheffield, now Brixton
Vrijeme pridruživanja: prosinac 2010.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    25. srp 2019.

    Esther McVey () is the 4th Housing Minister in 2 years, 9th Housing Minister in 8 years & 17th Housing Minister in 20 years lasting an average of 15 months.

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  2. 6. velj

    UK construction productivity (output per hour) between 1997 Q1 and 2019 Q3. Average annual productivity growth: - Building Construction Firms +0.3% per year - Civil Engineering Contractors: +0.5% per year - Specialist Contractors: 1.2% per year

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI fell again in January (48.4), the 9th consecutive fall (as 50=no monthly change) but the fall was less than in December (44.4). Falls in commercial, civil engineering & housing...

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    See thread for conclusions (lots and lots and lots of them) from the as-yet-unpublished review in .

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  5. 4. velj

    ... & may pick up during the 1st half of 2020 but the key will be if the reduction in uncertainty (& estate agents talking things up) will be realised in actual buyer demand & house price growth prior to the house builder Spring/Summer selling season.

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  6. 4. velj

    ... that can react quickest to uncertainty/certainty & changes in demand/prices in terms of building activity on site esp. given the short-lead time between contracts & output. Housing activity has slowed down since Summer 2019...

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  7. 4. velj

    IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI for house building fell in January & has fallen for 9 months, albeit at a considerably slower rate than in November & December. House builder sentiment rose following the General Election & housing is the sector...

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  8. 4. velj

    ... a significant rise in commercial contract awards in the 1st half of 2020 (primarily in offices given the lack of new retail work) would only expect to lead to a considerable rise in commercial activity in the ground during 2021...

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  9. 4. velj

    ... to start on site although these are primarily on small/medium-size projects. Sentiment towards future commercial projects has improved but there is a 12-18 month lag between commercial orders & output (on average) so...

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  10. 4. velj

    Commercial activity fell again in the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (13th consecutive monthly fall) as the fall in new orders in the last 3 years feeds through but some projects with contract awarded, on hold since 2019 H2, have been given the go-ahead...

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  11. 4. velj

    IHS Markit/CIPS UK Civil Engineering PMI fell again (the worst performing sector, falling every month of 2019) due to a lack of new projects to replace those finishing despite constant government announcements of rising capital spending & 'end to austerity'...

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  12. 4. velj

    ... & the reduced short-term uncertainty may lead to a rise in new orders for small/medium-size projects although this will take longer to feed through into activity on the ground esp. in sectors such as commercial & infrastructure that have a longer-lead time...

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  13. 4. velj

    ... the indications from speaking to architects, contractors, house builders & SMEs are that sentiment rose after a majority in the the Election & that led to a few smaller projects coming back (where the project was already signed but the start was delayed)...

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  14. 4. velj

    IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI fell again in January (48.4), the 9th consecutive fall (as 50=no monthly change) but the fall was less than in December (44.4). Falls in commercial, civil engineering & housing...

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  15. 29. sij

    It will be interesting to see if the reduction in political uncertainty following the majority General Election (& some trying to talk things up) leads to an end to the hiatus in starting those new developments during 2020 Q1 & Q2.

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  16. 29. sij

    ... with the uncertainty impacting on both private developers (majors & particularly for larger medium house builders putting their own money in) & housing associations (that are increasing reliant on the private sector housing market for revenue).

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  17. 29. sij

    New house building completions rose in 2019 Q3 as house builders & housing associations continued to build out in line with rising demand in the North West, Yorkshire & Midlands but uncertainty caused a hiatus in decision-making on starting new developments...

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  18. 29. sij

    Private house building completions in 2019 Q3 were 4.6% higher than in Q2 & 12.3% higher than a year ago. Housing Association completions in 2019 Q3 were 14.3% lower than in Q2 but 4.7% higher than a year ago.

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  19. 29. sij

    Private house building new starts in 2019 Q3 were 3.4% higher than in Q2 but 9.1% lower than a year ago. Housing Association new starts in 2019 Q3 were 4.2% lower than in Q2 & 21.3% lower than a year ago.

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  20. 29. sij

    Note government's 300,000 homes target is not based on starts & completions but 'net additional dwellings', which is the annual completions in addition to conversions (e.g. changing a house into multiple flats) & changes of use (e.g. changes of offices to resi).

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  21. 29. sij

    New house building starts in 2019 Q3 (39,510 homes ) were 2% higher than in the previous 3 months but 11% lower than a year ago. New house building completions (46,000) were 2% higher than 3 months ago & 11% higher than a year ago.

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