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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith 🐇
Noah Smith 🐇
Noah Smith  🐇
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@Noahpinion

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Noah Smith  🐇Verified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Writes about economics, tweets about rabbits. Newsletter: http://noahpinion.substack.com  Opinions my own, not Bloomberg's.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      4/Fortunately, our vaccines work so incredibly well that the vaccine refusers probably will not make us vulnerable to a renewed epidemic.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/22/pfizer-and-astrazeneca-highly-effective-against-india-covid-variant …

      4 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      5/But we are still going to have long-lasting pockets of infection and repeated small outbreaks, thanks to antivaxers. Thus, I am a little less optimistic on this issue than I was before.

      2 replies 4 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      6/How about the economy? Everyone (including me) was predicting a roaring recovery. And that is still the likeliest outcome, I think...https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-long-will-the-covid-recession …

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      7/But we've hit two bumps in the last month or two. The first was a very anemic rate of job growth in April, the cause of which has yet to be definitively identified.https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/lets-give-a-fond-farewell-to-pandemic …

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      8/Second, inflation startled people by coming in somewhat high in April, driven by supply bottlenecks in various markets.https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/when-to-worry-about-inflation …

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      9/Neither of these is worth panicking about yet. Inflation is probably going to go back down, and employment growth will probably accelerate. But there is certainly a little bit more risk here than it seemed like two months ago. So again, I'm still optimistic, but slightly less.

      2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      10/How about government policy? Biden charged out of the gates, looking like the most transformative president since Reagan...or maybe since FDR.https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/bidens-first-big-win-and-what-comes …

      2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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    8. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      11/Biden rolled out huge, bold plans for infrastructure/investment, care jobs, immigration, policing, and voting rights. BUT, all of these have now stalled, or are under threat of being compromised away.https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/bidens-agenda-imperiled-as-priorities-stall-in-congress/ …

      1 reply 2 retweets 27 likes
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    9. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      12/With Manchin and Sinema blocking filibuster reform, there's just no way to pass most of these big plans. I expect voting rights and immigration not to pass.pic.twitter.com/Idj0iKnoJ9

      1 reply 2 retweets 26 likes
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    10. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      13/More worryingly, on his investment/infrastructure plan -- which he could pass via reconciliation -- Biden looks like he might make the Obama mistake of making preemptive compromises in search of GOP support that will never materialize.https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/21/white-house-cuts-infrastructure-17-trillion-490185 …

      5 replies 10 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

      14/Most worryingly, Biden looks to have cut science funding out of his bill, saying instead that this will be part of the Endless Frontier Act, a parallel initiative in Congress. Problem: The Endless Frontier Act has already been utterly gutted.https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-congress-ruined-the-endless-frontier-act/ …

      4:19 PM - 23 May 2021
      • 12 Retweets
      • 31 Likes
      • Matt Kirkland Niskanen Center (((Vanity Unfair))) V%din Adolf Hitler Hassan khan Eric catherine cooke the Fully Vaxxed Tallest
      1 reply 12 retweets 31 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

          15/So on policy matters, I'm moderately less optimistic than before. It's still possible that Biden is just making a show of reaching out to the GOP before ultimately going it alone. Let's hope so. He needs to push a maximal investment bill through reconciliation.

          3 replies 0 retweets 32 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

          16/And finally, technological progress. A whole bunch of big important innovations have come together recently in a way that promises faster productivity growth. I'm still 100% optimistic about that!https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-for-the-2020s …

          3 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

          17/The only qualifier here is that the death of the Endless Frontier Act and Biden's science innovation plans will remove one of the tailwinds that would have accelerated progress this decade. So on technology, I'm slightly less optimistic, but still quite optimistic.

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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        5. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

          18/Basically, there are reasons to temper our optimism. Vaccine refusers, filibusters, and preemptive Biden compromises are the most worrying new storm clouds on our national horizon. But overall, I still think we're on track for good things. (end)https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/time-to-temper-my-optimism …

          2 replies 2 retweets 21 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 23

          Anyway, as always, if this sort of thing interests you, remember to sign up for my Substack's free email list!https://noahpinion.substack.com/ 

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        7. End of conversation

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