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The presentation does specify that vaccinating the elderly first leads to something like 0.5% fewer deaths overall.
Look. The presentation specifies that vaccinating workers first leads to fewer infections, but vaccinating the elderly first leads to fewer deaths.pic.twitter.com/iNHVHh0Lcb
It's some heavy duty prognostication there... if nurses are dropping off, deaths will also go up fast.
I'm very happy I do not have to be the one who determines who goes first, I prefer my sleep to be unencumbered 
As an Economic and Historian I'm always fascinated by these things, but now that I'm part of it, it feels different (scary and sometimes unclean). 
And both disciplines give me some basis to understand how tricky prognosticating is...
worth noting that this is assuming that the vaccine is effective in blocking infection as well as disease (I think they are assuming 90% efficacy which seems optimistic to me)
this is what it looks like if you assume only efficacy against diseasepic.twitter.com/kLyQGvjjtx
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