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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31

    Noah Smith Retweeted Conrad Hackett

    Remember this poll next time you read that 16% of Americans support (some horrible thing)https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/1057700665558999041 …

    Noah Smith added,

    Conrad HackettVerified account @conradhackett
    Nearly one-in-five U.S. adults (18%) say they’ve seen or been in the presence of a ghost #HappyHalloween http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/10/30/18-of-americans-say-theyve-seen-a-ghost/ …
    Show this thread
    11:47 AM - 31 Oct 2018
    • 28 Retweets
    • 175 Likes
    • Nate Jeris Hooptedoodle wumboist Swkoll Swkoll Mohammad bin Mohamed Joshua Yanovski John Eckstein Cavy Tony Vivace
    19 replies 28 retweets 175 likes
      1. McCain fan‏ @NeverTr74704466 Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Larry Elder coined the "Elvis rule" of polling. 20% of Americans believe Elvis is still alive, so almost any poll question will result in 20% picking the crazy option.

        0 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Jim Marett‏ @Jim_Marett Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        I used to work in opinion research. If you design a question the right way, you can get 20% of people to agree with just about anything.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Kathleen Weldon‏ @KathleenWeldon Oct 31
        Replying to @Jim_Marett @Noahpinion

        I like to call it the 18% loony factor. Any question about terrible things being a punishment from God gets an 18% agreement. 18% was also Dick Cheney’s lowest approval rating.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. John Harper‏ @Johnwbh Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        @slatestarcodex called it the lizardman constanthttp://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/ …

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      2. Nihilist Sean Spicer‏ @nihilistspicer Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        things get pretty wild one standard deviation below the mean

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Nihilist Sean Spicer‏ @nihilistspicer Oct 31
        Replying to @nihilistspicer @Noahpinion

        us normal idiots with a mere 90 IQ don't get to see ghosts. gotta lose a few more IQ points until you can speak to the ethereal. too stupid to do anything, but too smart to contact the netherworld, the actual worst place on the distribution to be

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Jacob Hole‏ @canderaid Oct 31
        Replying to @nihilistspicer @Noahpinion

        I think it’s more to do with the fact that about 1/5 people will answer yes to poll qs like “is the queen a lizard” just for fun

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Nihilist Sean Spicer‏ @nihilistspicer Oct 31
        Replying to @canderaid @Noahpinion

        no they literally saw a ghost

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. Mikey Brewer Was Right‏ @TheMostBrewed Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        I don’t understand your point, it doesn’t say they endorse ghosts. I’ve seen plenty but I don’t like them. I disavow them

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. JimmyCarter2020‏ @jacaissie Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Somehow this doesn't comfort me.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. curds &  🥣‏ @bythehue Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        we need a venn diagram for the basehttp://bit.ly/29fPotl 

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. ssgslack‏ @ssgslack Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        It’s that 1 dentist who doesn’t recommend Colgate for people who brush their teeth.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Lorin Hochstein‏ @lhochstein Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Crazification factor is 27%. http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Art‏ @ArthurEASC Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Yes, but the ghosts are real aren't they?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Matthew Truitt Stern‏ @mattski_o Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        What? You're anti-ghost?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Dylan Henrich‏ @dylanhenrich Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        I learned of it as the one-fifth rule in my voting behavior course. ~20% of Americans will believe something ridiculous.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Lynn  🍁 Sparks‏ @witch0winter Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Does it count if the only specter I've seen is the specter of Communism?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. almost always‏ @ms_scherholz Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Does mean that only 20% of sane people support the president, rather than the 36% that polls claim?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jeffrey Dabe‏ @jeffrey_dabe Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Do 18% of people have brain tumors that cause hallucinations? That is the only way this can be explained!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Smokeface‏ @SmokefaceX Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        So you are a Ghost Denier. Embrace science, Ghosts are real 👻👻👻

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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