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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31

    Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

    8:33 AM - 31 Oct 2018
    • 63 Retweets
    • 286 Likes
    • Tõnis Rand ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Guilherme Augusto 🥕 Shf.rizqia ScipioAcheronus Martin Kopischke O Questão 21 savage - ASMR trap.mp3 Ekvitarius Sepp M. 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇪🇺
    24 replies 63 retweets 286 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31

        Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

        4 replies 7 retweets 44 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31

        Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

        10 replies 4 retweets 26 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31

        Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

        4 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31

        "Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model... (end)

        7 replies 4 retweets 25 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. James‏ @JasDnldTerry Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Horse archery doesn’t really qualify as an idea, though.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31
        Replying to @JasDnldTerry

        Sure it does, why wouldn't it?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. James‏ @JasDnldTerry Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        It’s an instant or application of an idea. So the idea is missile weapons broadly, variously atlatls or bows or rifles.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31
        Replying to @JasDnldTerry

        That's just a more general idea. But more importantly, "horse archery" really refers to a whole system of warfare, emphasizing mobility, envelopment, and lack of need for supply lines. That all became unfeasible in the age of the gun.

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. James‏ @JasDnldTerry Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Ideas and applications should be disambiguated. Otherwise, at the margins, everything can be categorized as an idea. This seems baroque and not probative analytically.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31
        Replying to @JasDnldTerry

        The principle I'm talking about actually applies to lots of stuff that is not an idea, so I'm not super concerned with boundary-policing the word "ideas" here.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Adam Smith‏ @invisiblehand14 Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        On the contrary, because an idea is old it could be good more often than not. Lindy Effect.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31
        Replying to @invisiblehand14

        I bet you think older airplanes are safer too 🤣

        3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
      4. Occam’s Razor Burn‏ @RtisticFX Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion @invisiblehand14

        Judging by his photo, I’m not sure he knows what an airplane is.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31
        Replying to @RtisticFX @invisiblehand14

        Hey don't insult my uncle Adam

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Joe Day‏ @joeday05 Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Yes, but most ideas die outright. Old ideas that survive probably can provide pearls of wisdom relevant to current circumstance.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 31
        Replying to @joeday05

        I think most ideas get resurrected periodically forever.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Joe Day‏ @joeday05 Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Most good ideas for sure. My ratio of good to bad ideas is quite embarrassing. I’d be surprised to see the bad ones come back in any form. I put those, generously, in the category, “learned from my mistakes.”

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. curds &  🥣‏ @bythehue Oct 31
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        just because an idea is new it doesn't mean it's good

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      3. Kermit the Thankful Frog  🦃‏ @KermyTheFroggy Oct 31
        Replying to @bythehue @Noahpinion

        Maybe the age of an idea is generally a poor metric for the quality of the idea...

        1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
      4. curds &  🥣‏ @bythehue Oct 31
        Replying to @KermyTheFroggy @Noahpinion

        the internet never forgets or remembers a time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together

        0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      5. End of conversation

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