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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Trump has three basic groups of people that he thinks he can use as scary bogeymen to stir up fear among voters: 1. Central American immigrants 2. Black people 3. Muslims He basically cycles back and forth between these three bogeymen, as circumstances allow.

      60 replies 301 retweets 882 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      While broadly in agreement, I see an interesting problem here: do "Hispanics" broadly accept that premise that they are a single unified group? They are way too diverse to think that. Many Hispanics will not see Central Americans as like them. 1/

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
      Replying to @h27kim @Noahpinion

      A majority of Hispanics are not even immigrants, but fairly well-assimilated Americans, no less so than Poles or Italians. While there is a sizable Democratic leaning among Hispanic voters generally, the heterogeneity is huge. 2/

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
      Replying to @h27kim @Noahpinion

      My nagging suspicions is that both Trumpist race-mongering and Democratic hope of the future Hispanic votes are likely to fail, precisely b/c the audience just isn't there. Unless things really fall apart badly very fast. 3/

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
      Replying to @h27kim

      A successful Trumpian attack on birthright citizenship constitutes "things falling apart very fast".

      3:04 PM - 30 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          It might, especially if it is (as it is) a thinly disguised attack on Hispanic identity. But I suspect even that would not suffice to create a Hispanic block vote in the long term--it's not slavery. It would just delay complete assimilation by a few decades.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
          Replying to @h27kim

          Depends on if it leads to persistent, legally enshrined group persecution of Hispanics. For an analogy, look at Japan's Zainichi Koreans.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          A group that is a lot more assimilated than people think: they are not welcome in either Korea and they know that. To paraphrase Steinbeck, they are less foreign in Japan than in Korea..

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
          Replying to @h27kim

          This speaks directly to my point.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Well, I don't think we are in much of disagreement here. The key difference seems to be that I don't think, in the long run, Trumpism will matter for that much. A lot of sound and fury whose impact will be forgotten in a couple of decades, I suspect.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
          Replying to @h27kim @Noahpinion

          I should modify this by saying Trumpism will not matter much on the basis of racism. That provides a more relatable short term problem that obscures the fundamental systemic problems associated with it that are far more dangerous in the long run.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
          Replying to @h27kim

          I don't understand that argument. Can you explain?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I think Trump and the environment that gave rise to his presidency represent breakdown of the functioning of US political institution in general. Where there have been worse social and econ crises, the political system was robust enough for US to survive. 1/

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        10. 5 more replies

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