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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Without stuff like the caravan, riots, or ISIS attacks in the news, Trump will have to fall back on demonizing the media, liberals, etc. etc. - old partisan standbys that fail to evoke nearly as much fear.

      1 reply 14 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      That's why Trump needs a new bogeyman, for when there's no caravan in the news. There's one natural target: Hispanic Americans who are the children of people who immigrated illegally. Hence, the shift to birthright citizenship.

      3 replies 34 retweets 132 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Set aside legal changes for the moment. If Trump can delegitimize birthright citizenship rhetorically, he can paint Hispanic Americans - any of whom *might* have had undocumented parents, right? - as an occupying army on U.S. soil.

      3 replies 29 retweets 107 likes
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    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      If you talk to nativists, and point out that net illegal immigration ended a decade ago, they'll often say "that's the flow, but what about the stock?". The "stock", of course, means anyone who is - or might be? - a child of unauthorized immigrants.

      9 replies 21 retweets 102 likes
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    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

      Of course this could also extend to include Asian-Americans and the kids of recent African immigrants too - and someday it might. But the right has been cultivating the term "illegal" as an anti-Hispanic ethnic slur for a while now.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1053375495234961408 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
      9/In fact, there were always much more legal than illegal immigration from Mexico, and kids of undocumented immigrants are U.S. citizens. The "illegal" label is not really about the law. It's about race. It's a way to say Latinos aren't legitimate Americans.
      Show this thread
      5 replies 22 retweets 95 likes
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    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      So this is the long-term backup plan for if and when there's no more ISIS attacks, riots, or caravans to get people scared about. Hispanics as a permanent occupying army - illegitimate Americans, invaders living in the house nextdoor, etc. etc.

      1 reply 14 retweets 78 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      The question is: Will it work?? There are reasons to think it will, and reasons to think it won't.

      4 replies 8 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Reasons to think it might work: 1. Latinos are still fairly highly clustered in the Southwest, meaning voters in the Midwest and Northeast haven't had time to get acclimated to them yet. 2. Republicans are very scared of the Latino vote.

      4 replies 7 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Reasons to think it won't work: 1. Hispanic-white intermarriage is very high: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/05/18/1-trends-and-patterns-in-intermarriage/#the-largest-share-of-intermarried-couples-include-one-hispanic-and-one-white-spouse … As Tomas Jimenez documents, this means tons of white people have Hispanic people in their family now.https://www.amazon.com/Other-Side-Assimilation-Immigrants-Changing/dp/0520295706 …

      4 replies 13 retweets 75 likes
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    10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Other reasons to think it won't work: 2. Latinos have adopted English very rapidly, so don't seem as "foreign": https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/28/hispanic-immigrants-are-assimilating-just-as-quickly-as-earlier-groups/?noredirect=on … 3. Latinos have made good economic progress: https://www.amazon.com/Barrios-Burbs-Making-Mexican-American/dp/0804788669 …

      3 replies 12 retweets 71 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Painting Hispanic Americans in general as an occupying army calls on Americans to turn against their neighbors, their friends, their coworkers, their girlfriends and boyfriends, their wives and husbands and nieces and nephews. It's a nightmarish thing to ask.

      9:34 AM - 30 Oct 2018
      • 24 Retweets
      • 115 Likes
      • Daniel Stephen Kellett LM Ahab Robert Falconer Kolja Erman Haely Bare Technohipster Kevin Kresse
      8 replies 24 retweets 115 likes
        1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          So while I expect this to be Trump's strategy - and the strategy of the Stephen Millers and Steve Kings etc. who come after Trump and build on his movement - I kind of think this strategy will ultimately fail. But if it succeeds...God help us all. (end)

          3 replies 13 retweets 112 likes
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        2. TheLaureate‏ @The_Laureate_ Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I can verify this from experience. I'm a Mexican Republican, US citizen & try to persuade others but this affects my mother, my fiance, her siblings, her coworkers, etc. This is very divisive & I can no longer make the Republican case to them now. Why should I & why should they

          1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
        3. Laura, BRD‏ @LiglyCnsrvatari Oct 30
          Replying to @The_Laureate_ @Noahpinion

          It would not be retroactive. It certainly should not be. I've heard no reference to such.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Fava Bean‏ @Fava Oct 30
          Replying to @LiglyCnsrvatari @The_Laureate_ @Noahpinion

          You don't know that and can't know that.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. David Gutman‏ @DavutGutman Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion @historianess

          This kind of rhetoric is genocidal in nature. And I do not say that lightly.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Doctor Historianess‏ @historianess Oct 30
          Replying to @DavutGutman @Noahpinion

          Yes. The end goal here is the formation of a white ethnostate.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Francisco R. Ruiz‏ @ciscoru Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I'm not kidding when I say that I've heard conspiracy theory types describe Latino immigration as a literal "reconquista" of the land Mexico lost to the U.S.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. FreisinnigeZeitung‏ @FreisinnigeZtg Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          That's why smart (but, of course, evil) demagogues focus on small groups you can gang up on with few repercussions for the rest of the population. If you try to take on a large part of the population, you are asking for a civil war. ...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. FreisinnigeZeitung‏ @FreisinnigeZtg Oct 30
          Replying to @FreisinnigeZtg @Noahpinion

          Not to say it has never happened, but you perhaps need things like an ongoing war (and aftermath) or pretty separate areas of settlement that make it possible to keep the ugliness out of sight. So you are right that it would not work for 60 million Hispanics all over the country.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. FreisinnigeZeitung‏ @FreisinnigeZtg Oct 30
          Replying to @FreisinnigeZtg @Noahpinion

          But then the strategy is perhaps not this ambitious (of course, you will have those with big plans). You can split the group up and focus on groups that are small enough and outside of society. And that's why they bash "illegal immigrants" (maybe with an expansive definition).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. Scott William‏ @SWM_in_SEA Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          What about taking the vote away from Hispanic-Americans? That would probably work :/

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. K, not K‏ @kphextwin Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          though with geographic/neighborhood self-sorting, people might not end up being neighbors with those it affects

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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