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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Trump has three basic groups of people that he thinks he can use as scary bogeymen to stir up fear among voters: 1. Central American immigrants 2. Black people 3. Muslims He basically cycles back and forth between these three bogeymen, as circumstances allow.

      60 replies 301 retweets 882 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Recently, it's been hard for Trump to gin up fear of Muslims. There haven't been any high-profile ISIS attacks recently, and ISIS' army has been defeated in the Middle East.

      8 replies 13 retweets 119 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      It has also been hard to gin up fear of black people recently. The crime wave of 2015-2016 has largely ended. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/2018_09_CrimeAnalysisV6.pdf … BLM is not as high-profile, cities haven't had any riots, and Jason van Dyke went down for murder. All Trump can do is swipe at Kaepernick.

      6 replies 13 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      But the caravan provided Trump with the opportunity to go back to his favorite bogeyman - Hispanic immigration. Hence his revival of the "end birthright citizenship" threat today, plus sending troops to the border, blah blah blah.

      1 reply 16 retweets 133 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Of course, illegal immigration in general dried up a long time ago, as did mass immigration from Latin America. This caravan is just a tiny, fading echo.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-26/what-immigration-crisis-the-u-s-isn-t-being-swamped …

      4 replies 38 retweets 145 likes
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    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Without stuff like the caravan, riots, or ISIS attacks in the news, Trump will have to fall back on demonizing the media, liberals, etc. etc. - old partisan standbys that fail to evoke nearly as much fear.

      1 reply 14 retweets 114 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      That's why Trump needs a new bogeyman, for when there's no caravan in the news. There's one natural target: Hispanic Americans who are the children of people who immigrated illegally. Hence, the shift to birthright citizenship.

      3 replies 34 retweets 132 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Set aside legal changes for the moment. If Trump can delegitimize birthright citizenship rhetorically, he can paint Hispanic Americans - any of whom *might* have had undocumented parents, right? - as an occupying army on U.S. soil.

      3 replies 29 retweets 107 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      If you talk to nativists, and point out that net illegal immigration ended a decade ago, they'll often say "that's the flow, but what about the stock?". The "stock", of course, means anyone who is - or might be? - a child of unauthorized immigrants.

      9 replies 21 retweets 102 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

      Of course this could also extend to include Asian-Americans and the kids of recent African immigrants too - and someday it might. But the right has been cultivating the term "illegal" as an anti-Hispanic ethnic slur for a while now.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1053375495234961408 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
      9/In fact, there were always much more legal than illegal immigration from Mexico, and kids of undocumented immigrants are U.S. citizens. The "illegal" label is not really about the law. It's about race. It's a way to say Latinos aren't legitimate Americans.
      Show this thread
      9:21 AM - 30 Oct 2018
      • 22 Retweets
      • 95 Likes
      • Stephen Kellett LM Slayer1cell🌐 Alessandro S. Francisco Pino MugaSofer Magnus Petersen-Paaske Eugene Ipavec Kolja Erman
      5 replies 22 retweets 95 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          So this is the long-term backup plan for if and when there's no more ISIS attacks, riots, or caravans to get people scared about. Hispanics as a permanent occupying army - illegitimate Americans, invaders living in the house nextdoor, etc. etc.

          1 reply 14 retweets 78 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          The question is: Will it work?? There are reasons to think it will, and reasons to think it won't.

          4 replies 8 retweets 58 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Reasons to think it might work: 1. Latinos are still fairly highly clustered in the Southwest, meaning voters in the Midwest and Northeast haven't had time to get acclimated to them yet. 2. Republicans are very scared of the Latino vote.

          4 replies 7 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Reasons to think it won't work: 1. Hispanic-white intermarriage is very high: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/05/18/1-trends-and-patterns-in-intermarriage/#the-largest-share-of-intermarried-couples-include-one-hispanic-and-one-white-spouse … As Tomas Jimenez documents, this means tons of white people have Hispanic people in their family now.https://www.amazon.com/Other-Side-Assimilation-Immigrants-Changing/dp/0520295706 …

          4 replies 13 retweets 75 likes
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        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Other reasons to think it won't work: 2. Latinos have adopted English very rapidly, so don't seem as "foreign": https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/28/hispanic-immigrants-are-assimilating-just-as-quickly-as-earlier-groups/?noredirect=on … 3. Latinos have made good economic progress: https://www.amazon.com/Barrios-Burbs-Making-Mexican-American/dp/0804788669 …

          3 replies 12 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Painting Hispanic Americans in general as an occupying army calls on Americans to turn against their neighbors, their friends, their coworkers, their girlfriends and boyfriends, their wives and husbands and nieces and nephews. It's a nightmarish thing to ask.

          8 replies 24 retweets 115 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          So while I expect this to be Trump's strategy - and the strategy of the Stephen Millers and Steve Kings etc. who come after Trump and build on his movement - I kind of think this strategy will ultimately fail. But if it succeeds...God help us all. (end)

          3 replies 13 retweets 112 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation
        1. Ben Bear‏ @benwbear Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I‘m not sure the effect is that specific. Trump stirs up hate in whoever you already happen to hate and normalizes the fringe. Sadly as a native Squirrel Hill Jew this is viscerally clear to me today in a way it was only intellectually clear before.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Buffy's Blog‏ @BuffyBlogs Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          pic.twitter.com/Ls8Ql4rbMW

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        1. Michael Finn‏ @mfinn3333 Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Haters are pretty liberal in their choices of who to hate.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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