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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Trump has three basic groups of people that he thinks he can use as scary bogeymen to stir up fear among voters: 1. Central American immigrants 2. Black people 3. Muslims He basically cycles back and forth between these three bogeymen, as circumstances allow.

      60 replies 301 retweets 882 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      Recently, it's been hard for Trump to gin up fear of Muslims. There haven't been any high-profile ISIS attacks recently, and ISIS' army has been defeated in the Middle East.

      8 replies 13 retweets 119 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

      It has also been hard to gin up fear of black people recently. The crime wave of 2015-2016 has largely ended. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/2018_09_CrimeAnalysisV6.pdf … BLM is not as high-profile, cities haven't had any riots, and Jason van Dyke went down for murder. All Trump can do is swipe at Kaepernick.

      9:07 AM - 30 Oct 2018
      • 13 Retweets
      • 107 Likes
      • Stephen Kellett Brad Kitson Mary Lou George S Firestone Kolja Erman Dylan Langone Kathryn Laskey Investigate, Indict, Remove Trump grannystanding4Truth
      6 replies 13 retweets 107 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          But the caravan provided Trump with the opportunity to go back to his favorite bogeyman - Hispanic immigration. Hence his revival of the "end birthright citizenship" threat today, plus sending troops to the border, blah blah blah.

          1 reply 16 retweets 133 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Of course, illegal immigration in general dried up a long time ago, as did mass immigration from Latin America. This caravan is just a tiny, fading echo.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-26/what-immigration-crisis-the-u-s-isn-t-being-swamped …

          4 replies 38 retweets 145 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Without stuff like the caravan, riots, or ISIS attacks in the news, Trump will have to fall back on demonizing the media, liberals, etc. etc. - old partisan standbys that fail to evoke nearly as much fear.

          1 reply 14 retweets 114 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          That's why Trump needs a new bogeyman, for when there's no caravan in the news. There's one natural target: Hispanic Americans who are the children of people who immigrated illegally. Hence, the shift to birthright citizenship.

          3 replies 34 retweets 132 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Set aside legal changes for the moment. If Trump can delegitimize birthright citizenship rhetorically, he can paint Hispanic Americans - any of whom *might* have had undocumented parents, right? - as an occupying army on U.S. soil.

          3 replies 29 retweets 107 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          If you talk to nativists, and point out that net illegal immigration ended a decade ago, they'll often say "that's the flow, but what about the stock?". The "stock", of course, means anyone who is - or might be? - a child of unauthorized immigrants.

          9 replies 21 retweets 102 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

          Of course this could also extend to include Asian-Americans and the kids of recent African immigrants too - and someday it might. But the right has been cultivating the term "illegal" as an anti-Hispanic ethnic slur for a while now.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1053375495234961408 …

          Noah Smith added,

          Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
          9/In fact, there were always much more legal than illegal immigration from Mexico, and kids of undocumented immigrants are U.S. citizens. The "illegal" label is not really about the law. It's about race. It's a way to say Latinos aren't legitimate Americans.
          Show this thread
          5 replies 22 retweets 95 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          So this is the long-term backup plan for if and when there's no more ISIS attacks, riots, or caravans to get people scared about. Hispanics as a permanent occupying army - illegitimate Americans, invaders living in the house nextdoor, etc. etc.

          1 reply 14 retweets 78 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          The question is: Will it work?? There are reasons to think it will, and reasons to think it won't.

          4 replies 8 retweets 58 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Reasons to think it might work: 1. Latinos are still fairly highly clustered in the Southwest, meaning voters in the Midwest and Northeast haven't had time to get acclimated to them yet. 2. Republicans are very scared of the Latino vote.

          4 replies 7 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Reasons to think it won't work: 1. Hispanic-white intermarriage is very high: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/05/18/1-trends-and-patterns-in-intermarriage/#the-largest-share-of-intermarried-couples-include-one-hispanic-and-one-white-spouse … As Tomas Jimenez documents, this means tons of white people have Hispanic people in their family now.https://www.amazon.com/Other-Side-Assimilation-Immigrants-Changing/dp/0520295706 …

          4 replies 13 retweets 75 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Other reasons to think it won't work: 2. Latinos have adopted English very rapidly, so don't seem as "foreign": https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/28/hispanic-immigrants-are-assimilating-just-as-quickly-as-earlier-groups/?noredirect=on … 3. Latinos have made good economic progress: https://www.amazon.com/Barrios-Burbs-Making-Mexican-American/dp/0804788669 …

          3 replies 12 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          Painting Hispanic Americans in general as an occupying army calls on Americans to turn against their neighbors, their friends, their coworkers, their girlfriends and boyfriends, their wives and husbands and nieces and nephews. It's a nightmarish thing to ask.

          8 replies 24 retweets 115 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

          So while I expect this to be Trump's strategy - and the strategy of the Stephen Millers and Steve Kings etc. who come after Trump and build on his movement - I kind of think this strategy will ultimately fail. But if it succeeds...God help us all. (end)

          3 replies 13 retweets 112 likes
          Show this thread
        16. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. His Triumphant Blackness: The Negro Subversive‏ @negrosubversive Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          The weirdest thing about using a “crime wave” to gin up fear is that I’m pretty sure it was a predominantly intraracial crime wave. Black intraracial crime scares Whites into electing politicians who support social policies that help drive the crime they’re afraid of. Wild shit.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
          Replying to @negrosubversive

          I think it increases the general sense that black people are a menace that needs to be contained by brutal, racist police forces (thus making white people more scared of BLM, which seeks to contain the power of the police).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. His Triumphant Blackness: The Negro Subversive‏ @negrosubversive Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I’m wondering, given how devoid of reality this whole narrative is anyway, why you need the spike to begin with? I guess the media has to play its part by counting murders in “Chicago.” I’ve often noticed that Whites who don’t live anywhere near us have the strongest opinions...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. His Triumphant Blackness: The Negro Subversive‏ @negrosubversive Oct 30
          Replying to @negrosubversive @Noahpinion

          ...For instance, Steve King of the Clorox flavored state of Iowa seems to think that in Chicago you can go three generations without holding a job, which shows that he only encounters Black people on television. You just take a kernel and lie about the rest.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
          Replying to @negrosubversive

          There is absolutely nothing good about Steve King...

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        7. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Ronan‏ @ronanfitz22 Oct 30
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          He hasnt really concentrated that much on black americans though, afaict, which would make me think it's more nativism and anti foreigner than race per se (this is a point Eric Kaufmann made, iirc, that anti Latino sentiment is much more important than the colour line)

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
          Replying to @ronanfitz22

          During his campaign he did, and since taking office he's started fights with Kaepernick, but I think you're right (and the commentariat is largely wrong) - fear of black riots etc. just isn't as powerful as it was a few decades ago.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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