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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

    Trump has three basic groups of people that he thinks he can use as scary bogeymen to stir up fear among voters: 1. Central American immigrants 2. Black people 3. Muslims He basically cycles back and forth between these three bogeymen, as circumstances allow.

    9:00 AM - 30 Oct 2018
    • 301 Retweets
    • 882 Likes
    • Mary Matt Duff Beatrice Rutayisire Ninevin Brandon M. Taylor Celebrating 天安门 Tank Man Chris Ford Gold Is Worthless pavan
    60 replies 301 retweets 882 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Recently, it's been hard for Trump to gin up fear of Muslims. There haven't been any high-profile ISIS attacks recently, and ISIS' army has been defeated in the Middle East.

        8 replies 13 retweets 119 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        It has also been hard to gin up fear of black people recently. The crime wave of 2015-2016 has largely ended. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/2018_09_CrimeAnalysisV6.pdf … BLM is not as high-profile, cities haven't had any riots, and Jason van Dyke went down for murder. All Trump can do is swipe at Kaepernick.

        6 replies 13 retweets 107 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        But the caravan provided Trump with the opportunity to go back to his favorite bogeyman - Hispanic immigration. Hence his revival of the "end birthright citizenship" threat today, plus sending troops to the border, blah blah blah.

        1 reply 16 retweets 133 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Of course, illegal immigration in general dried up a long time ago, as did mass immigration from Latin America. This caravan is just a tiny, fading echo.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-06-26/what-immigration-crisis-the-u-s-isn-t-being-swamped …

        4 replies 38 retweets 145 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Without stuff like the caravan, riots, or ISIS attacks in the news, Trump will have to fall back on demonizing the media, liberals, etc. etc. - old partisan standbys that fail to evoke nearly as much fear.

        1 reply 14 retweets 114 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        That's why Trump needs a new bogeyman, for when there's no caravan in the news. There's one natural target: Hispanic Americans who are the children of people who immigrated illegally. Hence, the shift to birthright citizenship.

        3 replies 34 retweets 132 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Set aside legal changes for the moment. If Trump can delegitimize birthright citizenship rhetorically, he can paint Hispanic Americans - any of whom *might* have had undocumented parents, right? - as an occupying army on U.S. soil.

        3 replies 29 retweets 107 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        If you talk to nativists, and point out that net illegal immigration ended a decade ago, they'll often say "that's the flow, but what about the stock?". The "stock", of course, means anyone who is - or might be? - a child of unauthorized immigrants.

        9 replies 21 retweets 102 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

        Of course this could also extend to include Asian-Americans and the kids of recent African immigrants too - and someday it might. But the right has been cultivating the term "illegal" as an anti-Hispanic ethnic slur for a while now.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1053375495234961408 …

        Noah Smith added,

        Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
        9/In fact, there were always much more legal than illegal immigration from Mexico, and kids of undocumented immigrants are U.S. citizens. The "illegal" label is not really about the law. It's about race. It's a way to say Latinos aren't legitimate Americans.
        Show this thread
        5 replies 22 retweets 95 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        So this is the long-term backup plan for if and when there's no more ISIS attacks, riots, or caravans to get people scared about. Hispanics as a permanent occupying army - illegitimate Americans, invaders living in the house nextdoor, etc. etc.

        1 reply 14 retweets 78 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        The question is: Will it work?? There are reasons to think it will, and reasons to think it won't.

        4 replies 8 retweets 58 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Reasons to think it might work: 1. Latinos are still fairly highly clustered in the Southwest, meaning voters in the Midwest and Northeast haven't had time to get acclimated to them yet. 2. Republicans are very scared of the Latino vote.

        4 replies 7 retweets 71 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Reasons to think it won't work: 1. Hispanic-white intermarriage is very high: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/05/18/1-trends-and-patterns-in-intermarriage/#the-largest-share-of-intermarried-couples-include-one-hispanic-and-one-white-spouse … As Tomas Jimenez documents, this means tons of white people have Hispanic people in their family now.https://www.amazon.com/Other-Side-Assimilation-Immigrants-Changing/dp/0520295706 …

        4 replies 13 retweets 75 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Other reasons to think it won't work: 2. Latinos have adopted English very rapidly, so don't seem as "foreign": https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/28/hispanic-immigrants-are-assimilating-just-as-quickly-as-earlier-groups/?noredirect=on … 3. Latinos have made good economic progress: https://www.amazon.com/Barrios-Burbs-Making-Mexican-American/dp/0804788669 …

        3 replies 12 retweets 71 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        Painting Hispanic Americans in general as an occupying army calls on Americans to turn against their neighbors, their friends, their coworkers, their girlfriends and boyfriends, their wives and husbands and nieces and nephews. It's a nightmarish thing to ask.

        8 replies 24 retweets 115 likes
        Show this thread
      17. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30

        So while I expect this to be Trump's strategy - and the strategy of the Stephen Millers and Steve Kings etc. who come after Trump and build on his movement - I kind of think this strategy will ultimately fail. But if it succeeds...God help us all. (end)

        3 replies 13 retweets 112 likes
        Show this thread
      18. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. UPEH‏ @upehluoma Oct 30
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        How is this economic discussion?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
        Replying to @upehluoma

        If policy changes come of it, it will have big impacts on the economy in a huge number of ways. And of course, electoral politics matters for the economy too.

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
      4. UPEH‏ @upehluoma Oct 30
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        True. But, you have the cart before the horse. That is code for I’m old, and it spoofs algos and 19 year old hedgeies

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
        Replying to @upehluoma

        My cart runs on next-gen biofuel...

        2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      6. UPEH‏ @upehluoma Oct 30
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        So, a horse of a different, more expensive color?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 30
        Replying to @upehluoma

        Well, let's just say we had a few extra horses...

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      8. UPEH‏ @upehluoma Oct 30
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Oz is good that way

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      9. End of conversation

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