When Republicans started to believe in racial bloc voting - when they stopped believing that nonwhite people could ever be persuaded to vote Republican - they started to see immigration as an invasion. This explains why immigration is now at the center of partisan conflict.https://twitter.com/SenatorBrakey/status/1056540826317283328 …
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Of course, the belief in ethnic bloc voting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. When a slight Dem tilt among Hispanics and Asians caused the GOP to turn against them, Hispanics and Asians shifted more toward the Dems. Etc. etc. A self-reinforcing cycle.
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Bush's 2006 amnesty attempt, and the 2013 intra-GOP fight over immigration reform, were two moments when the GOP could have turned back to the approach of Reagan, and courted Hispanics and Asians. But they decided against this, and...here we are.
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What will disrupt this bad equilibrium, and save American politics from being an eternal race war? Either: A) More white voters will grow disgusted with the GOP approach and defect, or B) The GOP will find some non-immigration-related issues to attract more Hispanics and Asians.
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As long as both parties see elections in terms of racial bloc voting - where the only way to win is to increase turnout among your own racial blocs or suppress turnout by the other party's racial blocs - American politics will not improve, and the country will decline. (end)
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Thank you for including both sides here. I see both parties capitalize on racial block voting. As far as appealing to race and identity politics, don’t you the the left is just as implicit here?
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I think the 2016 election convinced a lot of Dems that there are no swing voters, and that the key to victory was to mobilize the base rather than to grab a nonexistent center. Whether that is correct, time will tell, but I think that fed the problem.
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