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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 26

    Noah Smith Retweeted Lisa Abramowicz

    Remember, if Trump imposes 25% tariffs on China, and the yuan depreciates 20%, the currency movement completely cancels out the tariff's effect on the price of imports from China...https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1055781293147992065 …

    Noah Smith added,

    Lisa AbramowiczVerified account @lisaabramowicz1
    China's yuan is the weakest since early last year, close to the weakest in a decade & approaching the key threshold level of 7 per dollar. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-26/china-s-yuan-nears-decade-low-as-brief-period-of-calm-ends … pic.twitter.com/qCBz8Bfx9g
    4:27 AM - 26 Oct 2018
    • 179 Retweets
    • 380 Likes
    • Kelender Peter Milne Gizem Uzuner It's Wilson! Phil Kaplan Nacho Garcia 🇪🇸 M Faroy 840 Nick Muchi
    43 replies 179 retweets 380 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Robin Brooks‏ @RobinBrooksIIF Oct 27
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        The 6% fall in trade-weighted RMB this summer priced the 25% tariff on $50 bn & 10% tariff on $200 bn. If the 10% goes to 25% RMB needs to fall another 6%. $/CNY would go to 7.35. Separately, there's value to breaking through 7.00 threshold, which is getting way too much play...pic.twitter.com/17fdK2SV70

        2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
      3. Dom White‏ @DomWhiteUK Oct 27
        Replying to @RobinBrooksIIF @Noahpinion

        Don’t these calculations require 100% pass-through from exchange rate to price?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Robin Brooks‏ @RobinBrooksIIF Oct 27
        Replying to @DomWhiteUK @Noahpinion

        Nope. Just based on the much bigger $500 bn number for imports to the US from China and the required FX move required to offset the higher tariff rates on a smaller base.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Dom White‏ @DomWhiteUK Oct 27
        Replying to @RobinBrooksIIF @Noahpinion

        Oh, I see. So you’re just applying the same ratio...? And assuming the same rate of pass-through, whatever that happens to be. Gotcha.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Dom White‏ @DomWhiteUK Oct 27
        Replying to @DomWhiteUK @RobinBrooksIIF @Noahpinion

        Agree on the whole 7 vs USD issue. It’s like the 3% yield on the 10yr UST. Meaningless. I’d worry about the knock-on effects of a move down to 7.35 on other EMs though.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Chadwick‏ @FollowChadwick Oct 26
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Prices are the same for the US consumer, but this time around the US govt gets to keep 25%... seems like a win for US, no?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. econhedge‏ @econhedge Oct 26
        Replying to @FollowChadwick @Noahpinion

        Not for US exporters to China so all this would do is further inflate the US China trade gap.

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Chadwick‏ @FollowChadwick Oct 26
        Replying to @econhedge @Noahpinion

        Agreed, but given that the trade gap exists it's not obvious that this is a bad thing for the US. Imagine the US only exported a very few things to China, the benefit to consumers would outweigh the detriment to producers.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. econhedge‏ @econhedge Oct 26
        Replying to @FollowChadwick @Noahpinion

        Don’t disagree just pointing out that US exporters are the clear loser here.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      6. NBAblockchainTECH‏ @jaygatzbee1 Oct 26
        Replying to @econhedge @FollowChadwick @Noahpinion

        Good thing we're a consumption based economy? lol 🤷‍♂️

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. econhedge‏ @econhedge Oct 26
        Replying to @jaygatzbee1 @FollowChadwick @Noahpinion

        This whole thing kicked off with Trump targeting a lower US-China trade gap, so this outcome would be a pretty big policy fail

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. NBAblockchainTECH‏ @jaygatzbee1 Oct 26
        Replying to @econhedge @FollowChadwick @Noahpinion

        What do you see the end game being with this?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      9. econhedge‏ @econhedge Oct 26
        Replying to @jaygatzbee1 @FollowChadwick @Noahpinion

        There will be a deal of some nature I suspect, maybe H1 next yr

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      10. End of conversation
      1. InThePEG‏ @SGCFlavio Oct 26
        Replying to @Noahpinion @lisaabramowicz1

        Not really, what happens when China imports from Korea and Japan for assembly parts of the products? Or for consumption?

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Derek Kaknes‏ @dkaknes Oct 26
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Currencies don’t move in a vacuum. If yuan depreciates v USD, that represents a financial writedown and widespread wage cut for all yuan savers/workers. If they are still willing to invest/work under those new terms, then trade flows won’t change. But why would they?

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. John Moser‏ @structuralecon Oct 26
        Replying to @dkaknes @Noahpinion

        Yeah that's my first thought too. It offsets the cost for Americans to buy Chinese goods, while making it more-expensive for Chinese to buy American goods. A trade imbalance is not harmful and is stable; structural change has impacts, and THIS change reduces GDP potential.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. John Moser‏ @structuralecon Oct 26
        Replying to @structuralecon @dkaknes @Noahpinion

        Also, to continue to buy and trade at the same flows with lower currency exchange rates, they'd have to work longer hours to produce the same amount of stuff and earn more total wages. If you have 70% as much income, you can only buy 70% as much.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Matty Vee‏ @VdubsDj Oct 26
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        But doesn't China's purchasing power decrease?

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. R‏ @Hogtown88 Oct 26
        Replying to @Noahpinion @lisaabramowicz1

        Then you raise the tariffs further. Eventually, China will see that its in their best interest to negotiate with the US.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Ohreally‏ @JohnKageleiry Oct 26
        Replying to @Hogtown88 @Noahpinion @lisaabramowicz1

        I think what you're missing is that our very strong currency will starve US exports while re-pricing in chinese yuan are much more competitive exporting to US. So we sell nothing and they continue to sell. Raising tariffs again just gets worse.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. R‏ @Hogtown88 Oct 26
        Replying to @JohnKageleiry @Noahpinion @lisaabramowicz1

        You’re right. But we don’t export much to them relative to GDP. As a negotiating strategy, I’d rather blow the whole thing up. We will have some pain, but they have far more to lose. Exports to us are 4-1/2% of their GDP and growing. The price to sell here should be fairness.

        4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Rei Murasame 村雨れい‏ @ReiMurasame Oct 26
        Replying to @Hogtown88 @JohnKageleiry and

        Rei Murasame 村雨れい Retweeted Sasakawa USA

        And while you're doing all that, this will continue:https://twitter.com/SasakawaUSA/status/1054782058856357893 …

        Rei Murasame 村雨れい added,

        Sasakawa USA @SasakawaUSA
        When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week, one of the main agenda items at their summit will be strengthening Japan-China economic cooperation. http://ow.ly/BUsH30mlitu 
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation

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