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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

      Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

      Bloomberg Ideas conference now starting! I will be live-tweeting it. You can watch on our Facebook or Twitter pages (links below)!https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1055466232944754693 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
      Today and tomorrow we'll be having a Bloomberg Ideas event! Today will be a panel on cryptocurrency. Tomorrow will be panels on the economics of AI, and on regulation of big tech companies. You can watch livestreams here: https://www.facebook.com/bloombergopinion … https://twitter.com/bopinion  pic.twitter.com/VfxOscNflo
      Show this thread
      16 replies 21 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

      Our first panel is about cryptocurrency! We have @matt_levine, @tylercowen, @eiaine, @nirkaissar, and Camilla Russo! https://www.facebook.com/bloombergopinion/videos/323983198180419/ …

      4 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

      Ou: Crypto will be useful for the unbanked.

      11:25 AM - 25 Oct 2018
      • 2 Retweets
      • 4 Likes
      • David Jette Circle of competence Alan Elrod +patientsea900 SunnyGlottmann
      6 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: Crypto has to compete against a bunch of other emerging payments technologies. Bitcoin is too inflexible.

          3 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: I'll bet on the payments companies over crypto.

          2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Levine: Crypto could have a stable, successful medium-sized niche without taking over the financial system.

          3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Ou: Decentralized systems are still really inefficient relative to centralized ones. So crypto needs to get to the point where it's as easy to use as existing payment systems. But that's going to be hard.

          2 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Russo: Black market transactions are now only about 10% of transactions. But most is now speculation. Still almost zero use as actual money.

          2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Feldman: Of the ppl using Bitcoin to purchase actual goods and services, it's still mostly illegal, right? Russo: Yes. Remittances and cross-border transfers still very small.

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Russo: Crypto is not anonymous! It's pseudonymous. You can track accounts to their owners.

          2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: What are some use cases for crypto? Micropayments? (Noah's note: Seems like fees are too high for that)

          3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Feldman: If you use crypto for stuff on legal gray areas, regulation will come. You can't just occupy spaces between laws forever.

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: 40% chance crypto is a niche thing, 15% chance it goes huge, and 45% chance it collapses and goes away.

          6 replies 16 retweets 49 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Levine: It's hard for the SEC not to step in and regulate ICOs. Most clearly look like securities offerings.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Kaissar: Investors are more careful now because we learned our lesson from the tech and housing bubbles. The Bitcoin bubble was pretty small.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: The people losing on ICOs are typically highly educated nerdy people who know what game they're playing.

          2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Feldman: But isn't general trust in the markets a public good?

          3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Levine: It's possible you need to have decades of scammy markets in order to build the infrastructure for a functioning market, which you then regulate.

          5 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: @VitalikButerin is one of the very smartest people I've ever met, and with no formal training has replicated results by Nobel-winning economists.

          1 reply 5 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: Vitalik is worried that too much of people's trust in Ethereum is just personal trust in him. So the mechanisms [of the Ethereum ecosystem] need to work in a more formal, effective way.

          1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Kaissar: We're now realizing the negative impacts of social media. What negative effects might blockchain have on the world?

          3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Russo: Bad guys are already using blockchain for their own benefit. And there's lots of market manipulation and other bad behavior in the crypto space. It's a fertile ground for bad actors.

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Ou: Blockchain could topple the nation-state and lead to ultimate peace and prosperity. Feldman: Having been to Iraq, toppling the nation-state sounds bad.

          6 replies 13 retweets 70 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: Bitcoin's flaws actually allow you to hedge against weird things (like the state of hacking technology).

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: Skeptical of stablecoins. All pegs fail. Bretton Woods failed. The Chinese currency peg failed. How well-capitalized are stablecoins? They will fail.

          4 replies 10 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Noah Smith Retweeted Bloomberg Opinion

          https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1055549311587676160?s=19 …

          Noah Smith added,

          Bloomberg OpinionVerified account @bopinion
          "Cash I think will be better for most kinds of crimes than these anonymous coins for the foreseeable future," says @tylercowen https://bloom.bg/2ELPKsM 
          2 replies 4 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Cowen: As crypto matures it will become bureaucratized and institutionalized. Levine: A lot of crypto is rediscovering the (institutional) history of finance.

          2 replies 8 retweets 43 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Me: Crypto is using enormous and increasing amounts of energy. Currently for Bitcoin it's all being used for either speculation or crime. It threatens to.undo the decoupling of growth from energy use. What will save us from the Bitcoin energy apocalypse?

          9 replies 2 retweets 25 likes
          Show this thread
        27. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Russo: Bitcoin might be worth it. It still uses less energy than gold mining. And it uses electricity in places where electricity is cheap. Cowen: Bitcoin is relatively minor as far as energy usage goes, but it's a real problem. Levine: Lighting network and proof-of-stake.

          3 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        28. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          Ou: Bitcoin energy usage is like war - a necessary use of energy to maintain competitive position. Feldman: But war is bad.

          3 replies 7 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        29. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 25

          And that's a wrap! Tomorrow we'll have two more panels: One on the economics of A.I., which I will be on, and one on regulation of big tech, which I will live-tweet! See you tomorrow!

          4 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        30. End of conversation

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