Turns out if you sell a bunch of college kids student loans and don’t have meaningful jobs to offer them to pay off the debt, they aren’t really looking to buy houses. Amazing.
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Mortgage prices have doubled. Prices, and costs, have remained steady. Surprised it took so long to figure this out.
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Tariffs on
lumber have also increased costs to builders. Maybe they are absorbing those costs, but out of their profits then.
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Is this bad? Feels like it’s bad...
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I'm sure between this and the stock market wipeout its either traitorous Democrats' fault or part of the 12-dimensional chess to MAGA
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Its as if interest rates play a factor in housing affordability....
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No one wants to refinance at 200 bps above their current mortgage by selling a house and buying another
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A guess based on the n=1 of Denver: look at # of apartments scheduled to come on the market in 2019
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There are lifestyle factors as well. I believe they call them the "lock & leave" generation.
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I think this is partially correct. Tax changes are definitely having an effect. Also, US spacial geographic wealth is reverting to the global mean-- ringed suburbs are no longer where wealth people want to live, wealth is returning to city cores like the rest of the world
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2/ This is being put into hyperdrive by ridesharing & amazon prime-- car centric lifestyles are less dominant. Same effect is being seen in retail stores around the country. 'Big Box' style of retail is going away, or at least a smaller percentage of wealthy purchases
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I think you meant whoa.
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Would have expected the tax bill to hurt prices more than volume
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I blame YIMBYs on Twitter with their Tweets
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cars looking shaky too. and chips. good gdp print will change mood but for how long
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Interest rates. Don’t want to give up my sub 4% rate.
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How does this compare to changes in building expenses and earnings? Could a slowdown represent an inability of people to keep up paying for the cost of building?
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Current house prices were only affordable at artificially low rates and it was unwise to keep that going. Asset prices can't just arbitrarily be pushed up forever without regard to longer term fundamentals and residential real estate prices have outstripped those.
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Breathtaking analysis
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