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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24

      Your must-read blog post of the day is Russ Roberts on panel studies of income changes:https://medium.com/@russroberts/do-the-rich-capture-all-the-gains-from-economic-growth-c96d93101f9c …

      8 replies 45 retweets 105 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24

      While inequality has increased, among actual *people*, there was a lot of regression to the mean - poor people tended to catch up, rich people to fall back. That's an important point that gets overlooked in our discussions of inequality and mobility.

      1:50 PM - 24 Oct 2018
      • 6 Retweets
      • 40 Likes
      • Scott McFatridge Henry George fan account 🌐 Jerome Williams Bim Taginski Woody Wong Espejo ☇Yoder☇ Wateer Guy Fox João Eira
      12 replies 6 retweets 40 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24

          Here's another paper on the topic: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3256993 …

          1 reply 4 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24

          Here's a picture of mobility by income percentile (from Chetty). You can see that when you're born poor, there's nowhere to go but up, and when you're born rich, it's hard to do better than your parents.pic.twitter.com/kQ1ERQckzy

          2 replies 24 retweets 41 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24

          Of course, if you really want to see dynastic wealth in action, you should probably look at wealth, rather than income...

          3 replies 3 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. mathIsMight‏ @mathIsMight Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I'm surprised you are falling into this trap, too. Mean reversion overstates income inequality, yes. But there's no reason to think it's more overstated now than before. Unless you're taking inequality levels seriously (and how could you?) we're just benchmarking against the past

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24
          Replying to @mathIsMight

          Sure, this is obvious, but why is it a "trap"?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. mathIsMight‏ @mathIsMight Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Because it's irrelevant to any discussion of inequality that isn't rooted in looking at wage ratios (and I haven't seen anyone serious doing that).

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24
          Replying to @mathIsMight

          I disagree strongly. To use an idealized example, suppose you and I switch out as CEO each year, with the other one being a regular employee. Then the wage ratio doesn't matter much. Of course that's not realistic, but it shows that tracking individuals matters a lot.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. mathIsMight‏ @mathIsMight Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I agree wage ratios don't matter. I don't think anyone serious thinks they do matter.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. mathIsMight‏ @mathIsMight Oct 24
          Replying to @mathIsMight @Noahpinion

          The only reason tracking matters is to get an accurate level unless you think this income switching is more prevalent than before.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Tom Barson‏ @tbarson49 Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Isn't this demographically built in? Young earners earn less than older earners - so any longitudinal approach should pick up this effect. But Russ sometime talks as if he thought this truth invalidates cross-sectional findings. I don't think so.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 24
          Replying to @tbarson49

          Correct, it does not. And yes, age does play a role here! But most of the story is just going to be mean reversion.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Shane Johnson‏ @AlwaysaGoodday1 Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          The last week has been a large regression for me

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Incentives Despot  🧂‏ @DrSammyD Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Yeah. The slice of time measure of wealth is a complete misrepresentation which plays on peoples assumptions of wealth immobility.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Deep Learning‏ @SH2F088 Oct 24
          Replying to @DrSammyD @Noahpinion

          Not a complete misrepresentation, but certainly far short of the entire story.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Is It Treason Season?‏ @ersatzverite Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I just don't get how the Piketty, et al stagnation story can be reconciled with the panel data stories. Prob have to read again.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. 1 more reply
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        2. OH NO! A BEAR!‏ @dzee_szed Oct 25
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I recall hearing somewhere about a study showing that people's incomes tended to resemble their grandparents' incomes more than their parents' incomes, that this regression to the mean didn't last more than a generation. Having trouble finding the source (Radiolab maybe?)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. OH NO! A BEAR!‏ @dzee_szed Oct 25
          Replying to @dzee_szed @Noahpinion

          Hypothesized that many "poorer" kids of rich adults were actually not poor—didn't work at all or worked jobs in arts or non-profits. Used parents' wealth to worry less about income and focus on fulfillment. But the grandkids used their connections to go back to high incomes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. OH NO! A BEAR!‏ @dzee_szed Oct 25
          Replying to @dzee_szed @Noahpinion

          Then many "wealthier" kids of poor parents may be working two jobs, moving away to work in expensive areas without a social network, making sacrifices for income. But the grandkids see them as unhappy and revert to working whatever jobs they can get with more worklife balance.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. Corey Husak‏ @CoreyHusak Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Panel income studies basically capture the "nowhere to go but down/up" dynamic. High earners strike it rich in their 20s/30s, then relatively stagnate or retire. Would be interesting to see actual income/wealth inequality, not just % change in income

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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