It is a very large number! Buy a subscription to our paper!
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One job that's probably up for replacement by automation would be the writing of those articles...
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The balance side of this story, which no one covers, is how many jobs automation has already replaced. Didn't it start with the cotton gin? And now who wants to separate fiber from seed by hand? Although that used to be a paying job.
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One thing we know for sure: computers will replace the people making these predictions.
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There’s already an eye-rolling robot out there so you’re already obsolete. Sorry.
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We were mostly farmers. Basically all those jobs were replaced by automation. I actually doubt we’ll see that level of job shift ever again until the Singularity in 2237.
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Predicting how many jobs will be replaced and when is probably not yet practical, but it's an absolute certainty that AI will render a great many people obsolete. People outside of the technology world seriously misjudge the pace at which AI is advancing.https://youtu.be/8nt3edWLgIg
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Let's put this in perspective. At an IQ of 70 a person is legally disabled At an IQ of 80 a person can't be trained to be useful in the military. How long will it be before the general intelligence of AI is 90? That would make AI more capable than 1/4 of the population.
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That argument is probably mistaken, see:https://aiimpacts.org/making-or-breaking-a-thinking-machine/ …
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I'm not sure that you're really getting the gist of my argument. There is no logical reason to assume that we will ever plateau in AI development, and as Sam Harris points out, as long as we keep making progress we'll eventually get there. The question is merely when.
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If you take my examples where AI already far surpass even the most skilled humans, you can see that all we need to do it continue training for specific skills, and eventually it won't matter how long true general intelligence trails behind.
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It won't matter how long it takes AI to learn new skills if it can outperform Doctors, Teachers and Truck Drivers. My comments about the IQ levels was only to put into perspective how little it will need to achieve to make a substantial proportion of the population useless.
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Yes we'll eventually be able to make AIs w/ that lvl of capability, but how to feel abt that depends on how such AI will actually work, which I don't think we know yet. I'm doubtful full human capability can be implemented just w/ contemporary unconscious classifiers & the like.
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We absolutely know that IBM Watson can process information more efficiently and accurately than a human Doctor. We also know that we are a few short years away from Self-driving cars which have significantly lower accident rates than humans. That's more than enough information.
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In the countries with advanced economies the world has already experienced a major loss of jobs with the automation of agriculture. Seems we have adjusted well enough using our time more productively doing other valuable work.
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Oh come on Noah, something something not as many horses as there were in <<earlier year>> and people are like horses amirite?
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It will all depend on how many humans management will want to take out of the equation. Hopefully, they will utilize automation to augment humans and make business run better, smarter, faster, not eliminate humans!
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