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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      Thanks both of you for your interest in this research. The mobility transition curve has been documented in several papers and is robust to various datasets. Two I recommend are: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.12.003 … and: https://doi.org/10.1787/persp_glob_dev-2017-en … (page 118+)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      The curve is not predictive of the future trajectory of any given country, because as you see there is a lot of variance around the conditional mean.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      What is much more important for El Salvador is what I wrote in an earlier comment to Noah: the growth rate of the youth cohort has been falling fast, both there and in Honduras. That portends greatly reduced migration pressure from those two countries in the medium term.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem @Noahpinion

      Any idea what's going on in the PWT 8.0 vs 9.0 for El Salvador's per capita GDP? Or what the 'correct' per capita income for El Salvador is for this purpose?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @m_clem @Noahpinion

      And yes, given the variance in migration explained by per capita income, this regression is more a slight bias in the tendency to migrate, rather than a strong prediction. Lots of country and decade specific variation.pic.twitter.com/zcWrJwo7S2

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @m_clem

      I certainly can't see that sort of "bias" just looking at that graph. Not sure how one would see it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @m_clem

      Sorry for bad phrasing. I'm saying that the variance seen in the scatter plot accommodates a wide range of migration rates for any income level. Predictions are about slight tendencies ('biases from a RW null'), not strong predictions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion @m_clem

      Which does get me back to the motivation for my initial comment: I do think you're overselling Clemens' cross-country regression as a robust prediction for Central America in the next ten years. (Totally not uncommon for cross-country regressions...)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @m_clem

      Maybe so, but higher GDP is not the only reason to expect an imminent slowdown!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @m_clem

      If there is a slowdown, Trump will have a different explanation about the cause and take full credit! Ah, identification problems in the social sciences....

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @m_clem

      Indeed he will.

      12:47 PM - 22 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 24
          Replying to @Noahpinion @m_clem

          Now Here Not There Retweeted Noah Smith

          I'm circling back to explain a bit more why I was concerned that using that 'current PPP US$' per capita income graph for El Salvador is seriously misleading and that claims that "it doesn't make much of a QUANTITATIVE difference" are incorrect.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1054432923049431040 …

          Now Here Not There added,

          Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
          Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
          So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve @m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now.
          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 24
          Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion @m_clem

          This may take a bit of time, so no need to jump in immediately...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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