This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo
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I certainly can't see that sort of "bias" just looking at that graph. Not sure how one would see it.
Sorry for bad phrasing. I'm saying that the variance seen in the scatter plot accommodates a wide range of migration rates for any income level. Predictions are about slight tendencies ('biases from a RW null'), not strong predictions.
Which does get me back to the motivation for my initial comment: I do think you're overselling Clemens' cross-country regression as a robust prediction for Central America in the next ten years. (Totally not uncommon for cross-country regressions...)
Maybe so, but higher GDP is not the only reason to expect an imminent slowdown!
If there is a slowdown, Trump will have a different explanation about the cause and take full credit! Ah, identification problems in the social sciences....
Indeed he will.
I'm circling back to explain a bit more why I was concerned that using that 'current PPP US$' per capita income graph for El Salvador is seriously misleading and that claims that "it doesn't make much of a QUANTITATIVE difference" are incorrect.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1054432923049431040 …
This may take a bit of time, so no need to jump in immediately...
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