Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

Tweets

Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

Tweets

  • © 2018 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      I had a few points to push back on, but I'll leave that for now, especially since I found something odd when looking into the data the uses paper that probably should be resolved first.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      Clemens' paper uses Penn World Table 8.0. So I pulled PWT 8.0 and the more recent 9.0 version.pic.twitter.com/mbnGnqmL4e

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      One sanity check is that Clemens' paper has a scatter plot in the back, and SLV is the country code (in the PWT) for El Salvador. Look: per capita income in 2010 is ~ $1000, just like in the PWT 8.0. That's low!pic.twitter.com/9Mmb6UB70e

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      That's 2000, not 2010, but yes, that is weird.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      Ooops, sorry, indeed 2000. Still weird, as you say.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      Yeah, I try never to use the PWT if I can help it. So if this kind of error was pervasive in that release instead of isolated, @m_clem's paper could be messed up, and the peak of emigration pressure could be misidentified.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      Thanks both of you for your interest in this research. The mobility transition curve has been documented in several papers and is robust to various datasets. Two I recommend are: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.12.003 … and: https://doi.org/10.1787/persp_glob_dev-2017-en … (page 118+)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      The curve is not predictive of the future trajectory of any given country, because as you see there is a lot of variance around the conditional mean.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      What is much more important for El Salvador is what I wrote in an earlier comment to Noah: the growth rate of the youth cohort has been falling fast, both there and in Honduras. That portends greatly reduced migration pressure from those two countries in the medium term.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem @nowherenorthere

      Can you recommend good research on the causal relationship of fertility decline to outmigration pressure? I've looked, but almost all the studies are about the opposite.

      12:19 PM - 22 Oct 2018
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2018 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info