I had a few points to push back on, but I'll leave that for now, especially since I found something odd when looking into the data the uses paper that probably should be resolved first.
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
Clemens' paper uses Penn World Table 8.0. So I pulled PWT 8.0 and the more recent 9.0 version.pic.twitter.com/mbnGnqmL4e
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
One sanity check is that Clemens' paper has a scatter plot in the back, and SLV is the country code (in the PWT) for El Salvador. Look: per capita income in 2010 is ~ $1000, just like in the PWT 8.0. That's low!pic.twitter.com/9Mmb6UB70e
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Replying to @nowherenorthere
That's 2000, not 2010, but yes, that is weird.
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Ooops, sorry, indeed 2000. Still weird, as you say.
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Replying to @nowherenorthere
Yeah, I try never to use the PWT if I can help it. So if this kind of error was pervasive in that release instead of isolated,
@m_clem's paper could be messed up, and the peak of emigration pressure could be misidentified.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
Thanks both of you for your interest in this research. The mobility transition curve has been documented in several papers and is robust to various datasets. Two I recommend are: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.12.003 … and: https://doi.org/10.1787/persp_glob_dev-2017-en … (page 118+)
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The curve is not predictive of the future trajectory of any given country, because as you see there is a lot of variance around the conditional mean.
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What is much more important for El Salvador is what I wrote in an earlier comment to Noah: the growth rate of the youth cohort has been falling fast, both there and in Honduras. That portends greatly reduced migration pressure from those two countries in the medium term.
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Can you recommend good research on the causal relationship of fertility decline to outmigration pressure? I've looked, but almost all the studies are about the opposite.
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