So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve @m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now.
-
-
Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
In any case, sorry again for being irritable before. I got almost no sleep last night and was in an airport security line. I apologize. Hope this clears things up.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Noahpinion
Thanks. Twitter on not sleep can go wrong (or even with sleep). Sorry for being more forceful than necessary as well.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
I had a few points to push back on, but I'll leave that for now, especially since I found something odd when looking into the data the uses paper that probably should be resolved first.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
Clemens' paper uses Penn World Table 8.0. So I pulled PWT 8.0 and the more recent 9.0 version.pic.twitter.com/mbnGnqmL4e
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
One sanity check is that Clemens' paper has a scatter plot in the back, and SLV is the country code (in the PWT) for El Salvador. Look: per capita income in 2010 is ~ $1000, just like in the PWT 8.0. That's low!pic.twitter.com/9Mmb6UB70e
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @nowherenorthere
That's 2000, not 2010, but yes, that is weird.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion
Ooops, sorry, indeed 2000. Still weird, as you say.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @nowherenorthere
Yeah, I try never to use the PWT if I can help it. So if this kind of error was pervasive in that release instead of isolated,
@m_clem's paper could be messed up, and the peak of emigration pressure could be misidentified.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
In any case, when Mexican immigration collapsed (2007), Mexico's per capita GDP PPP via World Bank #'s was about 74% higher than El Salvador's was in 2017. BUT, its total fertility rate in 2007 was 2.42, vs. 2.08 in El Salvador in 2016.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.