Now, taking the $8900 2016 current international $ PPP number from my graph (source: CIA World Factbook https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=es&v=67 …), and deflating it by the U.S. GDP deflator back to 2005, we get $7343 for 2005.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
That is right at the peak of the curve identified by
@m_clem in this paper: http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf (Of course, there is uncertainty in that estimate and the curve may change over time; fine.)1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve
@m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
In any case, sorry again for being irritable before. I got almost no sleep last night and was in an airport security line. I apologize. Hope this clears things up.
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Thanks. Twitter on not sleep can go wrong (or even with sleep). Sorry for being more forceful than necessary as well.
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
I had a few points to push back on, but I'll leave that for now, especially since I found something odd when looking into the data the uses paper that probably should be resolved first.
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
Clemens' paper uses Penn World Table 8.0. So I pulled PWT 8.0 and the more recent 9.0 version.pic.twitter.com/mbnGnqmL4e
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo
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Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion
One sanity check is that Clemens' paper has a scatter plot in the back, and SLV is the country code (in the PWT) for El Salvador. Look: per capita income in 2010 is ~ $1000, just like in the PWT 8.0. That's low!pic.twitter.com/9Mmb6UB70e
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Replying to @nowherenorthere
That's 2000, not 2010, but yes, that is weird.
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I've found some wack shit in the PWT before, which they admitted and promised to fix (but never actually fixed!). http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/big-tfp-data-mystery.html … It's possible that version miscoded SLV in that release. The updated numbers are close to World Bank and CIA.
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