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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      7/This is why most of our public immigration debate - family separations, migrant caravans, etc. - now centers around Central Americans. Central America is the U.S.' only remaining major source of inflows of less-educated, unauthorized immigration.

      2 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      8/BUT, there are very good reasons to think that the Central American mini-wave of immigrants is a temporary phenomenon that will end soon. First, Central Americans, like Mexicans a decade earlier, have recently stopped having a bunch of kids.pic.twitter.com/g3ImEmffpq

      1 reply 14 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      9/Fewer kids means fewer people to send to America to work and send money home. It means young Central Americans will need to stay home, to take care of aged parents, to take over family businesses, etc. etc.

      2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      10/The second reason is that Central American countries have also been getting steadily richer.pic.twitter.com/d5QsKzBQei

      7 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
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    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      11/Once a country passes about $7000-$8000 (PPP), it usually starts sending fewer migrants abroad. http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf 

      1 reply 14 retweets 76 likes
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    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      12/Together, the fertility and income numbers mean that immigration from El Salvador - source of the gang MS-13 that Trump likes to scare people about - will collapse very soon. Guatemalan immigration will soon follow.

      4 replies 11 retweets 60 likes
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    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      13/Honduras, the source of the caravan that's now in the news, is still poor, and has slightly higher fertility than El Salvador. Thus, I expect Honduran immigration (or at least, attempted immigration) to continue for about a decade before it too collapses.

      1 reply 7 retweets 55 likes
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    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      14/In other words, the illegal immigration debate AND the low-skilled immigration debate are now almost entirely about three small Central American countries. And soon it will be only about one small Central American country (Honduras).

      2 replies 23 retweets 94 likes
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    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      15/This should help put the immigration debate in perspective. Are we really that scared of Honduras? Is Honduras so scary that we're willing to brutalize families and change our whole immigration policy? I would say no. (end)

      23 replies 37 retweets 261 likes
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    10. CelloMom on Cars‏ @CelloMomOnCars Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      I'd like to know if this is the first migrant caravan of its kind, or whether there have been caravans like this for years, but this one has been singled out because Nov 6 is a few weeks away

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @CelloMomOnCars

      It's a regular thing, has been happening for years. The caravans break up inside Mexico and the ppl try to sneak across the U.S. border from there. Many fail, and stay in Mexico. https://www.google.com/search?q=migrant+caravan&rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS779US779&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A%2Ccd_max%3A1%2F1%2F2018&tbm= …

      11:36 AM - 22 Oct 2018
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      • Chris Alexander Aletha
      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. CelloMom on Cars‏ @CelloMomOnCars Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Thank you. That confirms my suspicion

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Chris Alexander‏ @MarsInsider Oct 23
          Replying to @CelloMomOnCars @Noahpinion

          Also, Nov. 6 is just 2 weeks away, and IF this caravan doesn't completely melt into Mexico, it will take two months for it to reach our southern border. All this fear-mongering is nothing but demagoguery.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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