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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      Your problem is with the research I linked to, not with my PPP numbers. You're arguing that the PPP threshold for the immigration/PPP function should be inflation-adjusted. You should check the paper I linked to and see what they say about that.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      That paper uses "Real GDP per capita is in 2005 PPP US$". That is 2005 PPP US$, NOT current PPP US$. That's my point. The paper you're citing does the sensible thing and inflation adjusts. Your graph does not inflation adjust.pic.twitter.com/QvZdz0yxQX

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      Now Here Not There Retweeted Noah Smith

      I very much suggest a 2nd opinion. '2005 PPP US$' isn't the same thing as 'current PPP US$.' It matters.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1054394152962600960 …

      Now Here Not There added,

      Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
      Also note that since U.S. inflation has been low for a while, real per capita PPP income in El Salvdor HAS doubled. Now I must fly on a plane. I have dealt successfully with this failed attempt at critique. My numbers are correct. (end)
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      Hey! Sorry I snapped at you before; that was uncalled for. Anyway, I'm glad you now see that the "constant GDP" numbers you were citing earlier are market-exchange-rate numbers and not PPP.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      Your new critique - that I failed to adjust for inflation when comparing current-dollar PPP numbers to the 2005$PPP numbers in the paper I cited, is correct. BUT, it doesn't make much of a QUANTITATIVE difference. Let's look at some numbers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      U.S. inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, was about 21.2% (cumulative) between 2005 and 2016. You can check that here:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF 

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      Now, taking the $8900 2016 current international $ PPP number from my graph (source: CIA World Factbook https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=es&v=67 …), and deflating it by the U.S. GDP deflator back to 2005, we get $7343 for 2005.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      That is right at the peak of the curve identified by @m_clem in this paper: http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf  (Of course, there is uncertainty in that estimate and the curve may change over time; fine.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve @m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      This is correct. The growth rate of the youth cohort in both El Salvador and Honduras is already shrinking fast (UN World Population Prospects database) due to past reductions in fertility. Guatemala's is poised to start shrinking in a few years. Baked in, predictable.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @m_clem

      Thanks! It would be interesting to see a 2d curve of emigration pressure for fertility and GDP per capita (though of course that would come with bigger error bars)...the two are pretty correlated, so I'd be interested to see which is driving the results.

      11:14 AM - 22 Oct 2018
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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