PPP is measured in current international dollars. That's what it is.
So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve @m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now.
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In any case, sorry again for being irritable before. I got almost no sleep last night and was in an airport security line. I apologize. Hope this clears things up.
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Thanks. Twitter on not sleep can go wrong (or even with sleep). Sorry for being more forceful than necessary as well.
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I had a few points to push back on, but I'll leave that for now, especially since I found something odd when looking into the data the uses paper that probably should be resolved first.
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Clemens' paper uses Penn World Table 8.0. So I pulled PWT 8.0 and the more recent 9.0 version.pic.twitter.com/mbnGnqmL4e
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This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo
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One sanity check is that Clemens' paper has a scatter plot in the back, and SLV is the country code (in the PWT) for El Salvador. Look: per capita income in 2010 is ~ $1000, just like in the PWT 8.0. That's low!pic.twitter.com/9Mmb6UB70e
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That's 2000, not 2010, but yes, that is weird.
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I've found some wack shit in the PWT before, which they admitted and promised to fix (but never actually fixed!). http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/big-tfp-data-mystery.html … It's possible that version miscoded SLV in that release. The updated numbers are close to World Bank and CIA.
End of conversation
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This is correct. The growth rate of the youth cohort in both El Salvador and Honduras is already shrinking fast (UN World Population Prospects database) due to past reductions in fertility. Guatemala's is poised to start shrinking in a few years. Baked in, predictable.
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Thanks! It would be interesting to see a 2d curve of emigration pressure for fertility and GDP per capita (though of course that would come with bigger error bars)...the two are pretty correlated, so I'd be interested to see which is driving the results.
End of conversation
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