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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      I did. As I pointed out above, the link you posted says 'current international $'. Current is the key word. [I've asked for a 2nd opinion on this from an international econ friend. I'll see what he says.]

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      PPP is measured in current international dollars. That's what it is.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      Since it CURRENT international dollars the per capita income series you posted isn't inflation adjusted. Real per capita income in El Salvador hasn't doubled. You need to take inflation out if you want to see how much richer people are getting. That's my only point.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      Your problem is with the research I linked to, not with my PPP numbers. You're arguing that the PPP threshold for the immigration/PPP function should be inflation-adjusted. You should check the paper I linked to and see what they say about that.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      That paper uses "Real GDP per capita is in 2005 PPP US$". That is 2005 PPP US$, NOT current PPP US$. That's my point. The paper you're citing does the sensible thing and inflation adjusts. Your graph does not inflation adjust.pic.twitter.com/QvZdz0yxQX

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      Now Here Not There Retweeted Noah Smith

      I very much suggest a 2nd opinion. '2005 PPP US$' isn't the same thing as 'current PPP US$.' It matters.https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1054394152962600960 …

      Now Here Not There added,

      Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere
      Also note that since U.S. inflation has been low for a while, real per capita PPP income in El Salvdor HAS doubled. Now I must fly on a plane. I have dealt successfully with this failed attempt at critique. My numbers are correct. (end)
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      Hey! Sorry I snapped at you before; that was uncalled for. Anyway, I'm glad you now see that the "constant GDP" numbers you were citing earlier are market-exchange-rate numbers and not PPP.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      Your new critique - that I failed to adjust for inflation when comparing current-dollar PPP numbers to the 2005$PPP numbers in the paper I cited, is correct. BUT, it doesn't make much of a QUANTITATIVE difference. Let's look at some numbers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      U.S. inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, was about 21.2% (cumulative) between 2005 and 2016. You can check that here:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF 

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      Now, taking the $8900 2016 current international $ PPP number from my graph (source: CIA World Factbook https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=es&v=67 …), and deflating it by the U.S. GDP deflator back to 2005, we get $7343 for 2005.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

      That is right at the peak of the curve identified by @m_clem in this paper: http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf  (Of course, there is uncertainty in that estimate and the curve may change over time; fine.)

      11:01 AM - 22 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

          So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve @m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

          In any case, sorry again for being irritable before. I got almost no sleep last night and was in an airport security line. I apologize. Hope this clears things up.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Thanks. Twitter on not sleep can go wrong (or even with sleep). Sorry for being more forceful than necessary as well.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

          I had a few points to push back on, but I'll leave that for now, especially since I found something odd when looking into the data the uses paper that probably should be resolved first.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

          Clemens' paper uses Penn World Table 8.0. So I pulled PWT 8.0 and the more recent 9.0 version.pic.twitter.com/mbnGnqmL4e

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

          This is what PWT 8.0 and 9.0 show for El Salvador per capita GDP, once in 2005 PPP US$ (for PWT 8.0) and once for 2011 PPP US$ (for PWT 9.0). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/ …pic.twitter.com/ieTKFJFnoo

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

          One sanity check is that Clemens' paper has a scatter plot in the back, and SLV is the country code (in the PWT) for El Salvador. Look: per capita income in 2010 is ~ $1000, just like in the PWT 8.0. That's low!pic.twitter.com/9Mmb6UB70e

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          That's 2000, not 2010, but yes, that is weird.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 1 more reply

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