OMG just look at the World Bank's PPP numbers if you don't believe my numbers, Jesus Christ I sent you the link
Hey! Sorry I snapped at you before; that was uncalled for. Anyway, I'm glad you now see that the "constant GDP" numbers you were citing earlier are market-exchange-rate numbers and not PPP.
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Your new critique - that I failed to adjust for inflation when comparing current-dollar PPP numbers to the 2005$PPP numbers in the paper I cited, is correct. BUT, it doesn't make much of a QUANTITATIVE difference. Let's look at some numbers.
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U.S. inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, was about 21.2% (cumulative) between 2005 and 2016. You can check that here:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF
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Now, taking the $8900 2016 current international $ PPP number from my graph (source: CIA World Factbook https://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=es&v=67 …), and deflating it by the U.S. GDP deflator back to 2005, we get $7343 for 2005.
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That is right at the peak of the curve identified by
@m_clem in this paper: http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf (Of course, there is uncertainty in that estimate and the curve may change over time; fine.) -
So because El Salvador is right at the peak of the curve
@m_clem identified, and when we add in the fact that El Salvador is already below replacement fertility, I'd say our best guess is that Salvadoran immigration pressure will fall starting now. -
In any case, sorry again for being irritable before. I got almost no sleep last night and was in an airport security line. I apologize. Hope this clears things up.
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