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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      7/This is why most of our public immigration debate - family separations, migrant caravans, etc. - now centers around Central Americans. Central America is the U.S.' only remaining major source of inflows of less-educated, unauthorized immigration.

      2 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      8/BUT, there are very good reasons to think that the Central American mini-wave of immigrants is a temporary phenomenon that will end soon. First, Central Americans, like Mexicans a decade earlier, have recently stopped having a bunch of kids.pic.twitter.com/g3ImEmffpq

      1 reply 14 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      9/Fewer kids means fewer people to send to America to work and send money home. It means young Central Americans will need to stay home, to take care of aged parents, to take over family businesses, etc. etc.

      2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      10/The second reason is that Central American countries have also been getting steadily richer.pic.twitter.com/d5QsKzBQei

      7 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      Looking at other sources, those GDP per capita numbers (PPP) don't look right for El Salvador. It looks like a PPP to nominal US dollars series. The constant dollar series at FRED is less impressive.pic.twitter.com/5F8RcBMVnc

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      That series is not PPP!!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      I know, but that shouldn't matter much, PPP adjustment doesn't deviate much year to year one you use the domestic deflator (i.e. we now get to play a three deflator game).

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      That series is at (old) market exchange rates. Not PPP adjusted.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      What series do you mean by 'that series'? I'm saying the series you posted (the one below) look like a PPP nominal dollar series.pic.twitter.com/qgeL8fS6Dz

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

      In your series El Salvador's per capita GDP more than doubles 1999 to 2014. That doesn't show up in other data sources for any deflated series. Here World Bank:pic.twitter.com/XGVF3XWhzD

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
      Replying to @nowherenorthere

      That's the same market exchange rate series from FRED. World Bank is where FRED gets that data.

      7:41 AM - 22 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

          https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?name_desc=false …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Your link says: CURRENT international $. It is not CONSTANT international $.pic.twitter.com/m3p2xWEQOP

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          OMG just look at the World Bank's PPP numbers if you don't believe my numbers, Jesus Christ I sent you the link

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

          I don't want to be a jerk but you're aggressively disputing things that you don't understand well. Please look t the World Bank PPP numbers. I have not made a mistake.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I suggest you consult an economist you trust who works with this data for get a 2nd opinion. I'm 98% sure I'm not confused and I did work with this data in the (now distant) past.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          Did you look at the World Bank PPP numbers, or are you just being belligerent at this point?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I did. As I pointed out above, the link you posted says 'current international $'. Current is the key word. [I've asked for a 2nd opinion on this from an international econ friend. I'll see what he says.]

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          PPP is measured in current international dollars. That's what it is.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 4 more replies

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