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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      5/But even as Mexicans have left the U.S., Central American immigration from the three "northern triangle" countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala has (modestly) increased. Here are the numbers.pic.twitter.com/icgZjnZQo4

      1 reply 6 retweets 54 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      6/A majority of Central American immigrants are unauthorized (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/07/rise-in-u-s-immigrants-from-el-salvador-guatemala-and-honduras-outpaces-growth-from-elsewhere/ …). In addition, Central American immigrants tend to be much less educated than other immigrants.pic.twitter.com/5j0dVfP5rJ

      1 reply 9 retweets 46 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      7/This is why most of our public immigration debate - family separations, migrant caravans, etc. - now centers around Central Americans. Central America is the U.S.' only remaining major source of inflows of less-educated, unauthorized immigration.

      2 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      8/BUT, there are very good reasons to think that the Central American mini-wave of immigrants is a temporary phenomenon that will end soon. First, Central Americans, like Mexicans a decade earlier, have recently stopped having a bunch of kids.pic.twitter.com/g3ImEmffpq

      1 reply 14 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      9/Fewer kids means fewer people to send to America to work and send money home. It means young Central Americans will need to stay home, to take care of aged parents, to take over family businesses, etc. etc.

      2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      10/The second reason is that Central American countries have also been getting steadily richer.pic.twitter.com/d5QsKzBQei

      7 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      11/Once a country passes about $7000-$8000 (PPP), it usually starts sending fewer migrants abroad. http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf 

      1 reply 14 retweets 76 likes
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    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      12/Together, the fertility and income numbers mean that immigration from El Salvador - source of the gang MS-13 that Trump likes to scare people about - will collapse very soon. Guatemalan immigration will soon follow.

      4 replies 11 retweets 60 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      13/Honduras, the source of the caravan that's now in the news, is still poor, and has slightly higher fertility than El Salvador. Thus, I expect Honduran immigration (or at least, attempted immigration) to continue for about a decade before it too collapses.

      1 reply 7 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      14/In other words, the illegal immigration debate AND the low-skilled immigration debate are now almost entirely about three small Central American countries. And soon it will be only about one small Central American country (Honduras).

      2 replies 23 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      15/This should help put the immigration debate in perspective. Are we really that scared of Honduras? Is Honduras so scary that we're willing to brutalize families and change our whole immigration policy? I would say no. (end)

      12:24 PM - 21 Oct 2018
      • 37 Retweets
      • 261 Likes
      • Big League *Holiday* Truth Lindsay Fünke Voted Blue Scott Weldon Rob Michlowitz Aron Roberts Kristina McElheran shainzona Verity Pace 🇨🇦 Frizz Remembers 🇨🇦
      23 replies 37 retweets 261 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mario Birch‏ @MarioBirch1 Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          What's the downside of changing to a merit-based immigration? It's worked wonders in Canada.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2017/06/28/opinion/canada-immigration-policy-trump.amp.html …

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21
          Replying to @MarioBirch1

          I agree, it's good. However, it doesn't solve the problem of enforcement of illegal immigration. Fortunately, most of that problem has already solved itself, and will continue to do so.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. CelloMom on Cars‏ @CelloMomOnCars Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I'd like to know if this is the first migrant caravan of its kind, or whether there have been caravans like this for years, but this one has been singled out because Nov 6 is a few weeks away

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @CelloMomOnCars

          It's a regular thing, has been happening for years. The caravans break up inside Mexico and the ppl try to sneak across the U.S. border from there. Many fail, and stay in Mexico. https://www.google.com/search?q=migrant+caravan&rlz=1C1SQJL_enUS779US779&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A%2Ccd_max%3A1%2F1%2F2018&tbm= …

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        4. CelloMom on Cars‏ @CelloMomOnCars Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Thank you. That confirms my suspicion

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. Chris Alexander‏ @MarsInsider Oct 23
          Replying to @CelloMomOnCars @Noahpinion

          Also, Nov. 6 is just 2 weeks away, and IF this caravan doesn't completely melt into Mexico, it will take two months for it to reach our southern border. All this fear-mongering is nothing but demagoguery.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. deep state nine‏ @adamberman84 Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Do we have any idea the level of wealth a country needs to have in order for it to be attractive? Specifically, as Mexico is richer relative to those three countries, is there reason to think migrants may stay there instead of taking the greater risk of coming to America?

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21
          Replying to @adamberman84

          Good question, don't know the answer.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. 2 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Juan Antonio‏ @JPretelt29 Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Hilo recomendado: @rurda @juliomej49 y @ReneSandovalRam

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. René Sandoval‏ @ReneSandovalRam Oct 23
          Replying to @JPretelt29 @Noahpinion and

          De acuerdo en que no es un problema que amenace la estabilidad de EEUU. Aun así no deja de ser ilegal. De acuerdo en que la separación de familias es brutal, pero nadie plantea otra opción diferente a acogerlos. ¿Por qué nadie critica los paises de los que huyen?

          0 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Steven Dengler‏Verified account @Dracogen Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Who is this monolithic “we”? There is a shockingly big “we” out there that has exactly zero difficulty demonizing fellow humans, and no amount of facts or reason will change their minds.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Steven Dengler‏Verified account @Dracogen Oct 21
          Replying to @Dracogen @Noahpinion

          They look at the column of desperate refugees on television and see nothing less than an army of evil subhumans marching ever closer, an army of Others who want to attack and destroy their homes and families and country. Their terror is gleefully used to control them.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. 1 more reply
        1. gluonspring‏ @gluonspring Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          There's an immigration debate? I see a President shouting xenophobic rhetoric to his xenophobic followers in ways that eerily echo the pre-pogrom rhetoric of ages past. Is that a debate?

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        1. Dhruv Sharma‏ @bfgdhrubo Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Important thread. But a discussion about Central American immigration that doesn't discuss the role played by the United States over the years is incomplete.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Paul Meisel‏ @PaulMeisel Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          But you are being rational. If you were a Fox watcher, you'd be terrified of more brown people from any source.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. @InformedTakes‏ @PeebsY0 Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          It's ironic that US policy has enabled the drug lords who rule Honduras.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Ray Marden‏ @RayMarden Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Facts matter. Or at least they should. Too bad irrational fears or bigotry could care less about them.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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