1/With people freaking out about the Honduran migrant caravan now forcing its way through Mexico, I figured it might be time for a thread about Central American immigration.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2018-10-21/migrant-caravan-continues-toward-u-s-even-as-trump-threatens-military-intervention …
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12/Together, the fertility and income numbers mean that immigration from El Salvador - source of the gang MS-13 that Trump likes to scare people about - will collapse very soon. Guatemalan immigration will soon follow.
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13/Honduras, the source of the caravan that's now in the news, is still poor, and has slightly higher fertility than El Salvador. Thus, I expect Honduran immigration (or at least, attempted immigration) to continue for about a decade before it too collapses.
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14/In other words, the illegal immigration debate AND the low-skilled immigration debate are now almost entirely about three small Central American countries. And soon it will be only about one small Central American country (Honduras).
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15/This should help put the immigration debate in perspective. Are we really that scared of Honduras? Is Honduras so scary that we're willing to brutalize families and change our whole immigration policy? I would say no. (end)
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End of conversation
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