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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      1/With people freaking out about the Honduran migrant caravan now forcing its way through Mexico, I figured it might be time for a thread about Central American immigration.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2018-10-21/migrant-caravan-continues-toward-u-s-even-as-trump-threatens-military-intervention …

      24 replies 303 retweets 454 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      2/I wrote a Bloomberg post about Central American immigration a few months ago.https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-26/what-immigration-crisis-the-u-s-isn-t-being-swamped …

      1 reply 15 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      3/First, some useful background. MEXICAN immigration to the United States collapsed a decade ago. Since then, there has been a decrease in the Mexican-born population living in America of about 500,000.pic.twitter.com/3a7BAfzxV1

      2 replies 23 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      4/Why did Mexican immigration to the U.S. collapse? The Great Recession was a catalyst, but the real reasons are much longer-term things: 1. Mexico got a lot richer 2. Mexicans stopped having lots of kids.pic.twitter.com/E7TPEGQzkS

      4 replies 18 retweets 118 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      5/But even as Mexicans have left the U.S., Central American immigration from the three "northern triangle" countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala has (modestly) increased. Here are the numbers.pic.twitter.com/icgZjnZQo4

      1 reply 6 retweets 54 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      6/A majority of Central American immigrants are unauthorized (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/07/rise-in-u-s-immigrants-from-el-salvador-guatemala-and-honduras-outpaces-growth-from-elsewhere/ …). In addition, Central American immigrants tend to be much less educated than other immigrants.pic.twitter.com/5j0dVfP5rJ

      1 reply 9 retweets 46 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      7/This is why most of our public immigration debate - family separations, migrant caravans, etc. - now centers around Central Americans. Central America is the U.S.' only remaining major source of inflows of less-educated, unauthorized immigration.

      2 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      8/BUT, there are very good reasons to think that the Central American mini-wave of immigrants is a temporary phenomenon that will end soon. First, Central Americans, like Mexicans a decade earlier, have recently stopped having a bunch of kids.pic.twitter.com/g3ImEmffpq

      1 reply 14 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      9/Fewer kids means fewer people to send to America to work and send money home. It means young Central Americans will need to stay home, to take care of aged parents, to take over family businesses, etc. etc.

      2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      10/The second reason is that Central American countries have also been getting steadily richer.pic.twitter.com/d5QsKzBQei

      12:17 PM - 21 Oct 2018
      • 7 Retweets
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      7 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          11/Once a country passes about $7000-$8000 (PPP), it usually starts sending fewer migrants abroad. http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf 

          1 reply 14 retweets 76 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          12/Together, the fertility and income numbers mean that immigration from El Salvador - source of the gang MS-13 that Trump likes to scare people about - will collapse very soon. Guatemalan immigration will soon follow.

          4 replies 11 retweets 60 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          13/Honduras, the source of the caravan that's now in the news, is still poor, and has slightly higher fertility than El Salvador. Thus, I expect Honduran immigration (or at least, attempted immigration) to continue for about a decade before it too collapses.

          1 reply 7 retweets 55 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          14/In other words, the illegal immigration debate AND the low-skilled immigration debate are now almost entirely about three small Central American countries. And soon it will be only about one small Central American country (Honduras).

          2 replies 23 retweets 94 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          15/This should help put the immigration debate in perspective. Are we really that scared of Honduras? Is Honduras so scary that we're willing to brutalize families and change our whole immigration policy? I would say no. (end)

          23 replies 37 retweets 261 likes
          Show this thread
        7. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Looking at other sources, those GDP per capita numbers (PPP) don't look right for El Salvador. It looks like a PPP to nominal US dollars series. The constant dollar series at FRED is less impressive.pic.twitter.com/5F8RcBMVnc

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          That series is not PPP!!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I know, but that shouldn't matter much, PPP adjustment doesn't deviate much year to year one you use the domestic deflator (i.e. we now get to play a three deflator game).

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          That series is at (old) market exchange rates. Not PPP adjusted.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          What series do you mean by 'that series'? I'm saying the series you posted (the one below) look like a PPP nominal dollar series.pic.twitter.com/qgeL8fS6Dz

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere @Noahpinion

          In your series El Salvador's per capita GDP more than doubles 1999 to 2014. That doesn't show up in other data sources for any deflated series. Here World Bank:pic.twitter.com/XGVF3XWhzD

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @nowherenorthere

          That's the same market exchange rate series from FRED. World Bank is where FRED gets that data.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 22
          Replying to @Noahpinion @nowherenorthere

          https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?name_desc=false …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 11 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Kjell "Shell" Nygren‏ @PaSwede Oct 21
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          One dynamic that also is worth watching is the extent to which central Americans would choose to stay in Mexico instead of continuing to the US. While Mexico's development is higher, most Central American's don't currently choose to simply migrate/stop in Mexico. 3/

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 21
          Replying to @PaSwede @Noahpinion

          Paradoxically, making migration to US miserable could cause exactly that, hyp speaking, and make Mexico think twice about its southern borders....

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Kjell "Shell" Nygren‏ @PaSwede Oct 21
          Replying to @h27kim @Noahpinion

          Thing is there is actually a fair amount of Racial bias/racism internal to Mexico as well. Many Mexican's with more European Ancestry look down on/discriminate against those with Ameri-indian ancestry. Same dynamic in Costa Rica where people think of themselves as white.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 21
          Replying to @PaSwede @Noahpinion

          Curious: IDK much about Nicaraguans in Costa Rica these days. What's going on there wrt politics?

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 21
          Replying to @h27kim @PaSwede @Noahpinion

          I mean, whether there's any serious anti political movement gaining ground, etc...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Kjell "Shell" Nygren‏ @PaSwede Oct 21
          Replying to @h27kim @Noahpinion

          There is apparently some of that going on... Don't know the details all that well...http://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-anti-immigrant-attitudes-violence-and-nationalism-in-costa-rica-73899 …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Henry Kim‏ @h27kim Oct 21
          Replying to @PaSwede @Noahpinion

          Thanks for the story. I'm tempted to "like" the story, but that would seem to give moral approval to what is going on that I don't care for. This is pretty fascinating development, though, that runs against every stereotype of Costa Rica.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Kjell "Shell" Nygren‏ @PaSwede Oct 22
          Replying to @h27kim @Noahpinion

          This kind of split in the Hispanic community between those who think of themselves as more "white" vs. those who don't may in part explain why Hispanic support for Democrats is not universal and why there are some Hispanics who actually support Trump on immigration.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        10. 1 more reply

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