1/With people freaking out about the Honduran migrant caravan now forcing its way through Mexico, I figured it might be time for a thread about Central American immigration.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2018-10-21/migrant-caravan-continues-toward-u-s-even-as-trump-threatens-military-intervention …
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11/Once a country passes about $7000-$8000 (PPP), it usually starts sending fewer migrants abroad. http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
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12/Together, the fertility and income numbers mean that immigration from El Salvador - source of the gang MS-13 that Trump likes to scare people about - will collapse very soon. Guatemalan immigration will soon follow.
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13/Honduras, the source of the caravan that's now in the news, is still poor, and has slightly higher fertility than El Salvador. Thus, I expect Honduran immigration (or at least, attempted immigration) to continue for about a decade before it too collapses.
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14/In other words, the illegal immigration debate AND the low-skilled immigration debate are now almost entirely about three small Central American countries. And soon it will be only about one small Central American country (Honduras).
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15/This should help put the immigration debate in perspective. Are we really that scared of Honduras? Is Honduras so scary that we're willing to brutalize families and change our whole immigration policy? I would say no. (end)
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Looking at other sources, those GDP per capita numbers (PPP) don't look right for El Salvador. It looks like a PPP to nominal US dollars series. The constant dollar series at FRED is less impressive.pic.twitter.com/5F8RcBMVnc
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That series is not PPP!!
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I know, but that shouldn't matter much, PPP adjustment doesn't deviate much year to year one you use the domestic deflator (i.e. we now get to play a three deflator game).
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That series is at (old) market exchange rates. Not PPP adjusted.
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What series do you mean by 'that series'? I'm saying the series you posted (the one below) look like a PPP nominal dollar series.pic.twitter.com/qgeL8fS6Dz
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In your series El Salvador's per capita GDP more than doubles 1999 to 2014. That doesn't show up in other data sources for any deflated series. Here World Bank:pic.twitter.com/XGVF3XWhzD
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That's the same market exchange rate series from FRED. World Bank is where FRED gets that data.
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One dynamic that also is worth watching is the extent to which central Americans would choose to stay in Mexico instead of continuing to the US. While Mexico's development is higher, most Central American's don't currently choose to simply migrate/stop in Mexico. 3/
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Paradoxically, making migration to US miserable could cause exactly that, hyp speaking, and make Mexico think twice about its southern borders....
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Thing is there is actually a fair amount of Racial bias/racism internal to Mexico as well. Many Mexican's with more European Ancestry look down on/discriminate against those with Ameri-indian ancestry. Same dynamic in Costa Rica where people think of themselves as white.
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Curious: IDK much about Nicaraguans in Costa Rica these days. What's going on there wrt politics?
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I mean, whether there's any serious anti political movement gaining ground, etc...
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There is apparently some of that going on... Don't know the details all that well...http://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-anti-immigrant-attitudes-violence-and-nationalism-in-costa-rica-73899 …
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Thanks for the story. I'm tempted to "like" the story, but that would seem to give moral approval to what is going on that I don't care for. This is pretty fascinating development, though, that runs against every stereotype of Costa Rica.
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This kind of split in the Hispanic community between those who think of themselves as more "white" vs. those who don't may in part explain why Hispanic support for Democrats is not universal and why there are some Hispanics who actually support Trump on immigration.
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