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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      1/With people freaking out about the Honduran migrant caravan now forcing its way through Mexico, I figured it might be time for a thread about Central American immigration.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2018-10-21/migrant-caravan-continues-toward-u-s-even-as-trump-threatens-military-intervention …

      24 replies 303 retweets 454 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      2/I wrote a Bloomberg post about Central American immigration a few months ago.https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-26/what-immigration-crisis-the-u-s-isn-t-being-swamped …

      1 reply 15 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      3/First, some useful background. MEXICAN immigration to the United States collapsed a decade ago. Since then, there has been a decrease in the Mexican-born population living in America of about 500,000.pic.twitter.com/3a7BAfzxV1

      2 replies 23 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      4/Why did Mexican immigration to the U.S. collapse? The Great Recession was a catalyst, but the real reasons are much longer-term things: 1. Mexico got a lot richer 2. Mexicans stopped having lots of kids.pic.twitter.com/E7TPEGQzkS

      4 replies 18 retweets 118 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      5/But even as Mexicans have left the U.S., Central American immigration from the three "northern triangle" countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala has (modestly) increased. Here are the numbers.pic.twitter.com/icgZjnZQo4

      1 reply 6 retweets 54 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

      6/A majority of Central American immigrants are unauthorized (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/07/rise-in-u-s-immigrants-from-el-salvador-guatemala-and-honduras-outpaces-growth-from-elsewhere/ …). In addition, Central American immigrants tend to be much less educated than other immigrants.pic.twitter.com/5j0dVfP5rJ

      12:11 PM - 21 Oct 2018
      • 9 Retweets
      • 46 Likes
      • Syed Kazim Rizvi Kirk Johnson 🌊 Tagsit 🌊 Charlie Jane Anders, Our Opinions Are Correct 🍍Tommaso Sciortino🥑 WaterBluSky Carol Forden Mario Birch jick johnson 🔰
      1 reply 9 retweets 46 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          7/This is why most of our public immigration debate - family separations, migrant caravans, etc. - now centers around Central Americans. Central America is the U.S.' only remaining major source of inflows of less-educated, unauthorized immigration.

          2 replies 11 retweets 65 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          8/BUT, there are very good reasons to think that the Central American mini-wave of immigrants is a temporary phenomenon that will end soon. First, Central Americans, like Mexicans a decade earlier, have recently stopped having a bunch of kids.pic.twitter.com/g3ImEmffpq

          1 reply 14 retweets 69 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          9/Fewer kids means fewer people to send to America to work and send money home. It means young Central Americans will need to stay home, to take care of aged parents, to take over family businesses, etc. etc.

          2 replies 3 retweets 44 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          10/The second reason is that Central American countries have also been getting steadily richer.pic.twitter.com/d5QsKzBQei

          7 replies 7 retweets 70 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          11/Once a country passes about $7000-$8000 (PPP), it usually starts sending fewer migrants abroad. http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf 

          1 reply 14 retweets 76 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          12/Together, the fertility and income numbers mean that immigration from El Salvador - source of the gang MS-13 that Trump likes to scare people about - will collapse very soon. Guatemalan immigration will soon follow.

          4 replies 11 retweets 60 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          13/Honduras, the source of the caravan that's now in the news, is still poor, and has slightly higher fertility than El Salvador. Thus, I expect Honduran immigration (or at least, attempted immigration) to continue for about a decade before it too collapses.

          1 reply 7 retweets 55 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          14/In other words, the illegal immigration debate AND the low-skilled immigration debate are now almost entirely about three small Central American countries. And soon it will be only about one small Central American country (Honduras).

          2 replies 23 retweets 94 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 21

          15/This should help put the immigration debate in perspective. Are we really that scared of Honduras? Is Honduras so scary that we're willing to brutalize families and change our whole immigration policy? I would say no. (end)

          23 replies 37 retweets 261 likes
          Show this thread
        11. End of conversation

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