Next up in my "immigration and diversity" reading list: "The Other Side of Assimilation: How Immigrants Are Changing American Life", by Tomas Jimenez.https://www.amazon.com/Other-Side-Assimilation-Immigrants-Changing/dp/0520295706 …
Yes, given the collapse in Latin American low-skilled immigration, the idea of restricting low-skilled immigration is much more about the future than the present.
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And your supposition that rising GDP in Latin and South America tends to reduce the desire to immigrate seems like it may be wrong. Maybe instead it just increases the expectations for a better life and the wherewithal to achieve it by coming to the US or somewhere else.
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Rising GDP increases immigration pressure until about $8000 or so in PPP terms, then decreases it pretty rapidly after that. Mexico is at almost $18,000 now, Guatemala and El Salvador are just hitting it now (i.e. they're at their peak).
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And most of South America is above that level already.
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But do you think, say, millions of Venezuelans would immigrate here if we permitted it? Maybe that's a temporary contingency of a failing state but there does seem to be a much higher risk of failing states in the southern hemisphere.
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Maybe Venezuelans, given the collapse of their economy. BUT, check it out - they're *not* coming here like the Guatemalans are. Why not? Well, for one thing, Venezuela is farther away - a lot more borders to cross.
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There's probably quite a few who could afford a single one way plane trip to Miami....but again I doubt we make it easy for them to get visas because if we did there would be a great deal of induced demand. 1/2
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Well as you know I'm less convinced than you that immigration from the southern hemisphere really is a thing of the past. Am I wrong to think this the current caravan from Honduras doesn't augur much larger flows in the future even if 4000 is not a big number in absolute terms.
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Not from the southern hemisphere, just from Latin America. Mexico was the biggie and it's done. Central America is still sending some folks over, but will soon be done. And South America is richer with sub-replacement fertility so it'll never get started.
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But Africa, that'll be big.
End of conversation
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