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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20

      Next up in my "immigration and diversity" reading list: "The Other Side of Assimilation: How Immigrants Are Changing American Life", by Tomas Jimenez.https://www.amazon.com/Other-Side-Assimilation-Immigrants-Changing/dp/0520295706 …

      3 replies 3 retweets 12 likes
    2. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      I assume you read @reihan's book?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
      Replying to @drpetebrowncdu

      Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

      I did, and reviewed it for Foreign Affairs!https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1050446153953599488 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
      1/I reviewed @reihan Salam's "Melting Pot or Civil War?" for Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2018-10-11/should-america-cut-low-skilled-immigration?gpp=LIdllm9bW3aj3/NdALeqADp1VU0zOS9kaldqMjViQ0xmWUMvRy9Ob2tiaElqMjFJR0Vwcm5rbUtCTEttTVFIT3BUaHpDT3dnUnBOSnlGaGxIOmY1N2FhMTFlNGVhNDE4Njk1YzFjYWIxY2MwMjM1YzA1ZTk1NTc3OWExOWI4N2VlMzhkZTk5YWM1NWU5NGFhNDQ%3D …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      is the review gated?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
      Replying to @drpetebrowncdu

      It is. But you can read my thread, where I paraphrase.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      of the unskilled variety...from Africa, from Asia and yes, Central and South America. Thus the call for keeping immigration levels the same but increasing the skills mix probably means a reduction in total numbers over time 2/2

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
      Replying to @drpetebrowncdu

      Yes, given the collapse in Latin American low-skilled immigration, the idea of restricting low-skilled immigration is much more about the future than the present.

      11:58 AM - 20 Oct 2018
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          And your supposition that rising GDP in Latin and South America tends to reduce the desire to immigrate seems like it may be wrong. Maybe instead it just increases the expectations for a better life and the wherewithal to achieve it by coming to the US or somewhere else.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
          Replying to @drpetebrowncdu

          Rising GDP increases immigration pressure until about $8000 or so in PPP terms, then decreases it pretty rapidly after that. Mexico is at almost $18,000 now, Guatemala and El Salvador are just hitting it now (i.e. they're at their peak).

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
          Replying to @Noahpinion @drpetebrowncdu

          And most of South America is above that level already.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          But do you think, say, millions of Venezuelans would immigrate here if we permitted it? Maybe that's a temporary contingency of a failing state but there does seem to be a much higher risk of failing states in the southern hemisphere.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
          Replying to @drpetebrowncdu

          Maybe Venezuelans, given the collapse of their economy. BUT, check it out - they're *not* coming here like the Guatemalans are. Why not? Well, for one thing, Venezuela is farther away - a lot more borders to cross.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          There's probably quite a few who could afford a single one way plane trip to Miami....but again I doubt we make it easy for them to get visas because if we did there would be a great deal of induced demand. 1/2

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. pete brown‏ @drpetebrowncdu Oct 20
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Well as you know I'm less convinced than you that immigration from the southern hemisphere really is a thing of the past. Am I wrong to think this the current caravan from Honduras doesn't augur much larger flows in the future even if 4000 is not a big number in absolute terms.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Tweet unavailable
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20

          Not from the southern hemisphere, just from Latin America. Mexico was the biggie and it's done. Central America is still sending some folks over, but will soon be done. And South America is richer with sub-replacement fertility so it'll never get started.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 20
          Replying to @Noahpinion @drpetebrowncdu

          But Africa, that'll be big.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation

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