Every time I inform someone that the abortion-crime hypothesis went bust and point them toward the lead-crime hypothesis instead, it feels like saving a soul...
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Thanks for sharing. Why do you think this gets so little coverage?
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A depressing-ass reason.
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None of those papers are published in even slightly prestigious journals as far as I can tell. That makes me really suspicious - this would be such a blockbuster issue that I’m sure the AER or QJE or at least AEJ applied or restat would have published good evidence.
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For lousier evidence, publication bias / bias in even writing a paper is a real issue. People tried 100 cute natural experiment specifications and 30 of them came out the “right way” and were written up. No one would ever write up the paper showing lead decreases crime.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Doesn't crime make people richer, yet lead is associated with poor areas? Or is profitable white-collar crime not included?
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