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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Today's @bopinion post is about how poor countries started catching up to rich ones. It looks like decolonization just took a few decades to start working.https://bloom.bg/2yKQWGQ 

      22 replies 139 retweets 263 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Basic econ theory says poor countries should grow faster than rich ones. But for much of the Industrial Revolution, the opposite happened. https://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/Courses/Readings/Pritchett.pdf?seq=14 … Why? Probably because the first countries to discover industrial technologies used them to conquer the others!

      2 replies 14 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      But then colonial empires went away. And yet still, for the next 30 years or so, poor countries fell further behind rich ones. https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3451299/Barro_Convergence.pdf?sequence=4 … Why?? Possible reasons: 1. Bad institutions (dictators, communism, autarkic trade regimes) 2. Civil wars 3. Lack of education

      11 replies 15 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      But then, starting in the 80s (for China) and the 90s (for India and Indonesia), some of the biggest poor countries got their acts together and started to catch up!pic.twitter.com/3keorSFcE6

      3 replies 10 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Global inequality began to fall.pic.twitter.com/UU3DogjQYc

      1 reply 13 retweets 36 likes
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    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Beginning in the 1990s, poor countries started to grow faster than rich ones. The pattern intensified in the 2000s.https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-future-of-economic-convergence/ …

      1 reply 10 retweets 39 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Noah Smith Retweeted Hannes Malmberg

      Outside of Africa, which was rocked by many huge wars in the 90s, the pattern was even stronger. Poor countries were catching up.https://twitter.com/HannesMalmberg1/status/1052002749762691073 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Hannes Malmberg @HannesMalmberg1
      Replying to @arvindsubraman @XSalaimartin and 2 others
      I was analyzing this recently and it is striking how fast this is changing. I focused on the world outside of Africa, and it becomes very after 2000. Big question: how (if in any way) should this new fact change our models of comparative development? pic.twitter.com/wUT3r7qwN5
      1 reply 9 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      In the 90s, natural resource prices were low, so many resource exporters didn't get to join in the growth party. In the 00s that changed, as resource prices started rising.pic.twitter.com/soqwTTkv3X

      1 reply 8 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Then the Great Recession halted rich-country growth, but didn't halt poor-country growth.pic.twitter.com/OeSIlDNIVO

      3 replies 6 retweets 36 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Now, some economists are starting to entertain a wild, hopeful notion: What if the facts are finally catching up to basic economic theory??https://www.cgdev.org/blog/everything-you-know-about-cross-country-convergence-now-wrong …

      1 reply 18 retweets 55 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Now that growth theory finally (sort of) works, the world will be a changed place. Inequalities won't vanish for a long time. But no longer will a few rich countries get to lord it over the rest of the world. The days of colonialism are done for good. (end)pic.twitter.com/SsSmy0QagA

      8:49 AM - 18 Oct 2018
      • 14 Retweets
      • 64 Likes
      • Antonio Santospirito beni kyando Stu in Virginia ABDALLAH ISSA John Lyddon James Oliver Steve Macodiseas E.T.R. Soles (Empty Tired Relentless)
      8 replies 14 retweets 64 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Justin Taylor‏ @justinqtaylor Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          I can't tell if this is sarcasm but it is very misguided. The world has been dragged into greater equality by specific policies, and superpowers are currently experiencing a backlash to many of these policies. There needs to be more agency in your analysis.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
          Replying to @justinqtaylor

          What are you talking about, Justin?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Justin Taylor‏ @justinqtaylor Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          This analysis glosses over a lot of causality. Foreign aide, free trade, exchanges of education and technology - these things are related to specific policies of rich nations, not due to "basic economics". Additionally, China is now a global superpower, which fuels its growth.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. Christian Zimmermann‏ @CZimm_economist Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          And then there are the economies that just do not grow (still) https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/10/when-economies-just-dont-grow/ …

          0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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        1. Eric Richardson‏ @lbyron Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Inequalities will never vanish, nor will relative poverty, but absolute poverty, w/ starvation & squalor will go away for the vast majority. Those left behind will be mostly mentally iIl, alienated from family & comm’y, unless we improve our abilities to reach them.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. James Oliver‏ @JmsOlvr Oct 19
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          And all of this very #GoodNews may have contributed to a little bad news, that is lagging growth in low skill worker wages in the developed countries, but that will change.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Eric Richardson‏ @lbyron Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Besides the realizations that freedom works, let’s not forget the tech innovations that allow leapfrogging over the very expensive infrastructures that had to be built in the developed world in the past and achieve economic parity in goods and services w/greater sustainability.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. John Eckstein‏ @jfeckstein Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Surprised you didn’t work How Asia Works into this

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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