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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Today's @bopinion post is about how poor countries started catching up to rich ones. It looks like decolonization just took a few decades to start working.https://bloom.bg/2yKQWGQ 

      22 replies 139 retweets 263 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Basic econ theory says poor countries should grow faster than rich ones. But for much of the Industrial Revolution, the opposite happened. https://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/Courses/Readings/Pritchett.pdf?seq=14 … Why? Probably because the first countries to discover industrial technologies used them to conquer the others!

      2 replies 14 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      But then colonial empires went away. And yet still, for the next 30 years or so, poor countries fell further behind rich ones. https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3451299/Barro_Convergence.pdf?sequence=4 … Why?? Possible reasons: 1. Bad institutions (dictators, communism, autarkic trade regimes) 2. Civil wars 3. Lack of education

      11 replies 15 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      But then, starting in the 80s (for China) and the 90s (for India and Indonesia), some of the biggest poor countries got their acts together and started to catch up!pic.twitter.com/3keorSFcE6

      8:42 AM - 18 Oct 2018
      • 10 Retweets
      • 34 Likes
      • Stu in Virginia ABDALLAH ISSA James Oliver Giriberti Komanya Benjamin Wolf Alesis Turner Inveterate Economist Brett Tamahori Swahili4Kids
      3 replies 10 retweets 34 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Global inequality began to fall.pic.twitter.com/UU3DogjQYc

          1 reply 13 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Beginning in the 1990s, poor countries started to grow faster than rich ones. The pattern intensified in the 2000s.https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-future-of-economic-convergence/ …

          1 reply 10 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Noah Smith Retweeted Hannes Malmberg

          Outside of Africa, which was rocked by many huge wars in the 90s, the pattern was even stronger. Poor countries were catching up.https://twitter.com/HannesMalmberg1/status/1052002749762691073 …

          Noah Smith added,

          Hannes Malmberg @HannesMalmberg1
          Replying to @arvindsubraman @XSalaimartin and 2 others
          I was analyzing this recently and it is striking how fast this is changing. I focused on the world outside of Africa, and it becomes very after 2000. Big question: how (if in any way) should this new fact change our models of comparative development? pic.twitter.com/wUT3r7qwN5
          1 reply 9 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          In the 90s, natural resource prices were low, so many resource exporters didn't get to join in the growth party. In the 00s that changed, as resource prices started rising.pic.twitter.com/soqwTTkv3X

          1 reply 8 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Then the Great Recession halted rich-country growth, but didn't halt poor-country growth.pic.twitter.com/OeSIlDNIVO

          3 replies 6 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Now, some economists are starting to entertain a wild, hopeful notion: What if the facts are finally catching up to basic economic theory??https://www.cgdev.org/blog/everything-you-know-about-cross-country-convergence-now-wrong …

          1 reply 18 retweets 55 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Now that growth theory finally (sort of) works, the world will be a changed place. Inequalities won't vanish for a long time. But no longer will a few rich countries get to lord it over the rest of the world. The days of colonialism are done for good. (end)pic.twitter.com/SsSmy0QagA

          8 replies 14 retweets 64 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Martinned 马丁‏ @Martinned81 Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          You mean the China that was famously colonised for centuries?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
          Replying to @Martinned81

          The Opium War, Taiping Rebellion, and partial colonization of China happened right around the time that the Industrial Revolution really accelerated.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Martinned 马丁‏ @Martinned81 Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          You think that that's what stopped the Chinese from keeping pace with Europe on development?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
          Replying to @Martinned81

          That, civil war, and communism. Kept them back by about 1 century.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Martinned 马丁‏ @Martinned81 Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Yes, but those are things they did to themselves, not colonialism

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
          Replying to @Martinned81

          Read "Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom".

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. End of conversation
        1. Daniel Irabien‏ @htenenbaum Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Migration restrictions could have played a role?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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