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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Today's @bopinion post is about how poor countries started catching up to rich ones. It looks like decolonization just took a few decades to start working.https://bloom.bg/2yKQWGQ 

      22 replies 139 retweets 263 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      Basic econ theory says poor countries should grow faster than rich ones. But for much of the Industrial Revolution, the opposite happened. https://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/Courses/Readings/Pritchett.pdf?seq=14 … Why? Probably because the first countries to discover industrial technologies used them to conquer the others!

      2 replies 14 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

      But then colonial empires went away. And yet still, for the next 30 years or so, poor countries fell further behind rich ones. https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3451299/Barro_Convergence.pdf?sequence=4 … Why?? Possible reasons: 1. Bad institutions (dictators, communism, autarkic trade regimes) 2. Civil wars 3. Lack of education

      8:40 AM - 18 Oct 2018
      • 15 Retweets
      • 52 Likes
      • Stu in Virginia bayo adeniyi James Oliver Aureliusz Kleks  🌐 E.T.R. Soles (Empty Tired Relentless) Idk what to do with this account Benjamin Wolf Alesis Turner Cynical Idealist
      11 replies 15 retweets 52 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          But then, starting in the 80s (for China) and the 90s (for India and Indonesia), some of the biggest poor countries got their acts together and started to catch up!pic.twitter.com/3keorSFcE6

          3 replies 10 retweets 34 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Global inequality began to fall.pic.twitter.com/UU3DogjQYc

          1 reply 13 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Beginning in the 1990s, poor countries started to grow faster than rich ones. The pattern intensified in the 2000s.https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-future-of-economic-convergence/ …

          1 reply 10 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Noah Smith Retweeted Hannes Malmberg

          Outside of Africa, which was rocked by many huge wars in the 90s, the pattern was even stronger. Poor countries were catching up.https://twitter.com/HannesMalmberg1/status/1052002749762691073 …

          Noah Smith added,

          Hannes Malmberg @HannesMalmberg1
          Replying to @arvindsubraman @XSalaimartin and 2 others
          I was analyzing this recently and it is striking how fast this is changing. I focused on the world outside of Africa, and it becomes very after 2000. Big question: how (if in any way) should this new fact change our models of comparative development? pic.twitter.com/wUT3r7qwN5
          1 reply 9 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          In the 90s, natural resource prices were low, so many resource exporters didn't get to join in the growth party. In the 00s that changed, as resource prices started rising.pic.twitter.com/soqwTTkv3X

          1 reply 8 retweets 26 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Then the Great Recession halted rich-country growth, but didn't halt poor-country growth.pic.twitter.com/OeSIlDNIVO

          3 replies 6 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Now, some economists are starting to entertain a wild, hopeful notion: What if the facts are finally catching up to basic economic theory??https://www.cgdev.org/blog/everything-you-know-about-cross-country-convergence-now-wrong …

          1 reply 18 retweets 55 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18

          Now that growth theory finally (sort of) works, the world will be a changed place. Inequalities won't vanish for a long time. But no longer will a few rich countries get to lord it over the rest of the world. The days of colonialism are done for good. (end)pic.twitter.com/SsSmy0QagA

          8 replies 14 retweets 64 likes
          Show this thread
        10. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Daryl Sng‏ @dsng Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          "The legacy of colonialism turned out to be a bigger drag on growth than economists had assumed." - not meaning to be snarky, but if (Western) economists assumed that, that's much, much, much too blithe

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
          Replying to @dsng

          I mean, it's not in the Solow model except for "A".

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Daryl Sng‏ @dsng Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Yeah, even as a high school student studying economics in Singapore back in the 1990s, it was pretty apparent that "A" contains multitudes, and it was weird to have one of the most major components of growth was just hand-waved away because it was more qualitative

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Matthew Housiaux‏ @mjhousiaux12 Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Hey Noah, question: Are there any poor countries that bucked this general trend, growing fairly quickly after decolonization?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Tracy Camp‏ @TracyCamp10 Oct 19
          Replying to @mjhousiaux12 @Noahpinion

          In addition to SK and Taiwan, I think interesting cases are Singapore and Hong Kong which developed very rapidly. The colonial regimes there weren't focused on resource extraction and their economies initially took off on manufacturing and as ports. Macau might also fit this.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Matthew Housiaux‏ @mjhousiaux12 Oct 19
          Replying to @TracyCamp10 @Noahpinion

          Interesting that they’re both city-states too 🤔

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Tracy Camp‏ @TracyCamp10 Oct 19
          Replying to @mjhousiaux12 @Noahpinion

          I've often wondered about the seemingly outsized economic performance of city and micro states and what that might imply for development and governance.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Matthew Housiaux‏ @mjhousiaux12 Oct 19
          Replying to @TracyCamp10 @Noahpinion

          Cities are smaller and more integrated than the average state, so I suppose that would result in greater productivity and economic efficiency? Idk, but we should look into this topic and regroup!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation
        1. Daniel Irabien‏ @htenenbaum Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Sabotage and network effects also played a role

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Gloria Novovic‏ @gloria_novovic Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion @zouhairrosli

          1990s called, they want their reductionist "science" back!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Clean & Light‏ @cleanandlight1 Oct 19
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Ireland became independent in 1922, had a civil war, followed autarkic economic policies and didn't have free secondary (high school) education. It remained poor until decisions to open economy and invest in education from late 1950s onwards. Despite mistakes, it's now very rich.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Mghase Elisa‏ @MghaseE Oct 18
          Replying to @Noahpinion @zittokabwe

          Political diarrhea as well I guess!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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