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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17

    Noah Smith Retweeted Patrick Sharkey

    In a city of 8.6 million people, in a country flooded with guns, this is pretty incredible. New York is getting something very, very right.https://twitter.com/patrick_sharkey/status/1052542751911407616 …

    Noah Smith added,

    Patrick Sharkey @patrick_sharkey
    Not one person was shot in New York City this past weekend. The city government, NYPD, hundreds of community organizations, teachers, coaches, and families all deserve credit for what's happening here. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny-metro-zero-shootings-weekend-nypd-monahan-20181015-story.html …
    8:07 PM - 17 Oct 2018
    • 137 Retweets
    • 603 Likes
    • Pedro Fernando Nery John Biggs Rajat Suri 🎶 Hello darkness my old friend 🎶 Autarkh JW MJCSM ಠ_ಠ Wayne Johnson
    30 replies 137 retweets 603 likes
      1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17

        In 1990, New York City had 2,245 murders. Last year? 290. (The city's population grew by 1.3 million in that time.)pic.twitter.com/jWktiV5YFc

        36 replies 169 retweets 527 likes
        Show this thread
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      1. New conversation
      2. Antonio García Martínez‏Verified account @antoniogm Oct 17
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        You just need to field a police force the size of a European military. Also, gentrify much of the city.

        4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17
        Replying to @antoniogm

        Noah Smith Retweeted Noah Smith

        https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/946629045487149057 …

        Noah Smith added,

        Noah SmithVerified account @Noahpinion
        4/So is this right? Is the replacement of black residents by white residents the reason for New York's epic crime drop? Here is the data for % white, % black, and murder rates in NYC by decade, from 1960 through 2010. pic.twitter.com/aQtDN2NjzO
        Show this thread
        1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
      4. Antonio García Martínez‏Verified account @antoniogm Oct 17
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        I'm not using gentrification as some sort of euphemism for race. The city very profoundly changed over the past 20 years.https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/04/the-gentrification-of-gotham/524694/ …

        3 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17
        Replying to @antoniogm

        I mean, I do agree that rising incomes reduce crime.

        3 replies 1 retweet 15 likes
      6. Antonio García Martínez‏Verified account @antoniogm Oct 17
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        You're missing the bit where Giuliani ran the homeless out of town, and embarked on 'stop and frisk'.

        5 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      7. unknown‏ @statdreams Oct 17
        Replying to @antoniogm @Noahpinion

        How many cities did Giuliani serve as mayor for? Because there drop in crime has been a national pattern.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17
        Replying to @statdreams @antoniogm

        New York's has been unusually large, but the most incredible has actually been D.C.

        1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
      9. Corey Yanofsky truly and sincerely‏ @Corey_Yanofsky Oct 18
        Replying to @Noahpinion @statdreams @antoniogm

        https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      10. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. K, not K‏ @kphextwin Oct 17
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        this is a naive, insensitive, ill-informed, probably stupid question but... any chance NYC gentrification is just forcing crime-prone communities outside of city limits?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17
        Replying to @kphextwin

        Well, what's another community that could be getting the overflow?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. SaveMeeJeebus‏ @SaveMeeJeebus Oct 17
        Replying to @Noahpinion @kphextwin

        Newark?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17
        Replying to @SaveMeeJeebus @kphextwin

        Newark's murder rate has gone down by about 40% since 1990. Not as good as NYC, but almost nowhere is.pic.twitter.com/IPXBUhVb3z

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      6. SaveMeeJeebus‏ @SaveMeeJeebus Oct 17
        Replying to @Noahpinion @kphextwin

        Looks like "40% down since 1990" may be technically true, but that chart seems to tell the story that it's just the low point in a recurring 10 year cycle of violence. Either way doesn't really support the idea that nearby communities are absorbing NYC's violent inhabitants

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 17
        Replying to @SaveMeeJeebus @kphextwin

        Yep. Note that murder in Newark fell at the same time as NYC's big drop in the 90s, then rose again, then fell again.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Bill Woodcock‏ @woodyatpch Oct 18
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        I don’t have a reference handy, but I remember seeing a well-supported study that showed that the drop in crime in the US correlated ONLY with the availability of legal contraception and abortion. Turns out wanted children don’t grow up to be criminals.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
        Replying to @woodyatpch

        Study turned out to be wrong, they had a coding error. Oops.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Bill Woodcock‏ @woodyatpch Oct 18
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Oops. So, it didn’t correlate, or other things did/did better?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 18
        Replying to @woodyatpch

        It didn't correlate. But check out the lead-crime hypothesis. Fits much better.https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/an-updated-lead-crime-roundup-for-2018/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Bill Woodcock‏ @woodyatpch Oct 18
        Replying to @Noahpinion

        Nice.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. End of conversation

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