Meanwhile, fewer and fewer Nigerians have jobs, which could portend a rise in social instability.pic.twitter.com/xUj2UYVQNJ
Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.
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Meanwhile, fewer and fewer Nigerians have jobs, which could portend a rise in social instability.pic.twitter.com/xUj2UYVQNJ
To escape the doom spiral of the Resource Curse, Nigeria should look to a country that seems to have beaten the curse: Botswana. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/18304/multi0page.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y …
Botswana's approach is basically: 1. Pour resource revenues into a Sovereign Wealth Fund 2. Depreciate the currency 3. Use SWF to stabilize the budget 4. Invest a bunch in education, health and infrastructurepic.twitter.com/4igm6XIQvn
Nigeria is already taking some of these steps, which is great.pic.twitter.com/oaEc1lfhW9
Not sure about the currency depreciation bit. Just: pour revenues into SWF. Stop manipulating the currency if you are, and do something like inflation targeting if you can. Rest as you had it.
If there is such a thing, it's not going to go away by managing the resource curse. If income per head rises, this bids up the price of non-traded goods, real exchange rate rises. Cost of haircuts kept down by impoverished citizens.
Wait, how is that relevant? Idea of exchange rate depreciation is to force the economy to diversify.
Suppose there is no nominal price stickiness. [In very long run that's plausibly true]. Then the RER is just whatever it is. If traded goods prices are equalized in competitive markets [a stretch] then RER=nontraded[home]/nontraded[foreign].
Your reform program will essentially raise productivity in non resource traded sectors. [better educated and healthier workers]. This bids up price of haircuts. Raises RER.
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