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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15

      Noah Smith Retweeted Pew Research Fact Tank

      I worry that both parties could be locked in a permanent cycle where each party keeps convincing itself that "THIS election will secure eternal dominance for our side", and then falling into apocalyptic despair and rage whenever they lose.https://twitter.com/FactTank/status/1051879991137525761 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Pew Research Fact TankVerified account @FactTank
      Three-quarters of Republicans say they are optimistic about the future of the Republican Party, and 77% of Democrats say they are optimistic about their party’s future. https://pewrsr.ch/2CLoFEe  pic.twitter.com/fQllIB66XK
      28 replies 30 retweets 151 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15

      We're still in a (defect, defect) equilibrium of the GOP-Dem prisoners' dilemma. We need to figure out how to get to (cooperate, cooperate), because this is a repeated game.https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-08/a-game-theory-solution-for-a-fractured-america …

      18 replies 16 retweets 80 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Dean Jackson‏ @DWJ88 Oct 15
      Replying to @Noahpinion

      Sort of feels like one side keeps saying "No really, this time I'll cooperate," but then a year later while you're in the prison rec room, someone tells you they were sentenced to time served.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15
      Replying to @DWJ88

      That's the (cooperate, defect) result, and it tends to prevail only for a short time.

      10:22 AM - 15 Oct 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Dean Jackson
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Dean Jackson‏ @DWJ88 Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Can't get past the paywall right now, so apologies if this is covered--but what mechanism will break that cycle? Seems like partisan mobilization by any means necessary--including defection--is doing quite well for parties but not the country. What will guide us to equilibrium?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. next_ghost‏ @next_ghost_cz Oct 15
          Replying to @DWJ88 @Noahpinion

          (defect, defect) *IS* the stable equilibrium. (cooperate, cooperate) is also an equilibrium but an unstable one. If you want to get a different result, you have pretty much only two options: Start over with new players, or change the game itself.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Dean Jackson‏ @DWJ88 Oct 15
          Replying to @next_ghost_cz @Noahpinion

          If my understanding of game theory is correct (dubious) then this is only true for games that don't repeat. Right? In repetetive games players should eventually coordinate. I just wonder if there's some undiscussed variable that will screw with that nicely packaged theory.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. next_ghost‏ @next_ghost_cz Oct 19
          Replying to @DWJ88 @Noahpinion

          You have the wrong idea about the game itself. In repeated prisoner's dilemma, all coordination happens between individual games. When the game starts, both players then have to choose whether they'll keep their promise or break it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. next_ghost‏ @next_ghost_cz Oct 19
          Replying to @next_ghost_cz @DWJ88 @Noahpinion

          And the key point of prisoner's dilemma is that neither player will find out whether they've been cheated until it's too late to change their mind. The optimal strategy for repeated prisoner's dilemma is to cooperate in the first game and then copy the last move of your opponent

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. next_ghost‏ @next_ghost_cz Oct 19
          Replying to @next_ghost_cz @DWJ88 @Noahpinion

          Here's a nice interactive explainer about prisoner's dilemma (a.k.a. "The Game of Trust"):https://ncase.me/trust/ 

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. next_ghost‏ @next_ghost_cz Oct 19
          Replying to @next_ghost_cz @DWJ88 @Noahpinion

          Also note that "stable equilibrium" is a situation where no player can get a better result by changing only their own strategy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. End of conversation

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