Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Verified account
@Noahpinion

Tweets

Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

Tweets

  • © 2018 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15

      Noah Smith Retweeted Pew Research Fact Tank

      I worry that both parties could be locked in a permanent cycle where each party keeps convincing itself that "THIS election will secure eternal dominance for our side", and then falling into apocalyptic despair and rage whenever they lose.https://twitter.com/FactTank/status/1051879991137525761 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Pew Research Fact TankVerified account @FactTank
      Three-quarters of Republicans say they are optimistic about the future of the Republican Party, and 77% of Democrats say they are optimistic about their party’s future. https://pewrsr.ch/2CLoFEe  pic.twitter.com/fQllIB66XK
      28 replies 30 retweets 151 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15

      We're still in a (defect, defect) equilibrium of the GOP-Dem prisoners' dilemma. We need to figure out how to get to (cooperate, cooperate), because this is a repeated game.https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-08/a-game-theory-solution-for-a-fractured-america …

      10:06 AM - 15 Oct 2018
      • 16 Retweets
      • 80 Likes
      • David Hall StormingJ ⚡ eeeebertarian David Kieltyka Chris Dean Rob Hornick Hayden Danny James Oliver
      18 replies 16 retweets 80 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jordan Perkins, BA/Hall Monitor‏ @jordanlperkins Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          The problem is that, in effect, we aren't playing a repeated game. Because each side is perpetually convinced that the republic will fall if the other side wins the elections, they discount future rounds of the game at effectively delta equals zero.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15
          Replying to @jordanlperkins

          Correct.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. 2018 is spooky enough as it is‏ @chrisFnicholson Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Wasn’t it basically World War II that fixed this last time?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15
          Replying to @chrisFnicholson

          and the Cold War.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 2018 is spooky enough as it is‏ @chrisFnicholson Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Soooooooooo…….

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Dean Jackson‏ @DWJ88 Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Sort of feels like one side keeps saying "No really, this time I'll cooperate," but then a year later while you're in the prison rec room, someone tells you they were sentenced to time served.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 15
          Replying to @DWJ88

          That's the (cooperate, defect) result, and it tends to prevail only for a short time.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Dean Jackson‏ @DWJ88 Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Can't get past the paywall right now, so apologies if this is covered--but what mechanism will break that cycle? Seems like partisan mobilization by any means necessary--including defection--is doing quite well for parties but not the country. What will guide us to equilibrium?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. next_ghost‏ @next_ghost_cz Oct 15
          Replying to @DWJ88 @Noahpinion

          (defect, defect) *IS* the stable equilibrium. (cooperate, cooperate) is also an equilibrium but an unstable one. If you want to get a different result, you have pretty much only two options: Start over with new players, or change the game itself.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Dean Jackson‏ @DWJ88 Oct 15
          Replying to @next_ghost_cz @Noahpinion

          If my understanding of game theory is correct (dubious) then this is only true for games that don't repeat. Right? In repetetive games players should eventually coordinate. I just wonder if there's some undiscussed variable that will screw with that nicely packaged theory.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. 4 more replies
        1. Matt Corbett‏ @CorbettMatt Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          The problem is that the actual (cooperate, cooperate) equilibrium of the American electorate is fiscally liberal, socially conservative, and anathema to the bases and leadership (for different reasons) of both parties

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Turkey Baster Baby‏ @Exosynjii Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          There is only one solution to this lockstep shitshow. End the false dichotomy. The true enemy of the people is evident to those who have googly eyes.pic.twitter.com/9cqQii0eiJ

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Daniel Farina‏ @danfarina Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Maybe. Unfortunately, Obama's immense concessions to Republicans did not restore the mode of cooperation, and there's no indication that any olive branch is going to make the party of pointless child separations cooperate.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Daniel Farina‏ @danfarina Oct 15
          Replying to @danfarina @Noahpinion

          Informally, I think a number of dissenting conservatives tend to think rout and defeat is the how to approach for now. One party doesn’t govern even the daily and material stuff well at all, and hasn’t for years. HW was probably the last, and boy, that was a long time ago.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Black Panther 2018  💥‏ @lakesideliberal Oct 15
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          What is optimal strategy for the other player in a multiple-iteration prisoners' dilemma game when one player's strategy is Always Defect? When you see that, you see that it is incumbent on the player who initiated Always Defect to change.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. John Breen‏ @johndavidbreen Oct 15
          Replying to @lakesideliberal @Noahpinion

          Hmmm, but it looks like each side thinks the other side initiates “Always Defect.” So that doesn’t seem to help.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Black Panther 2018  💥‏ @lakesideliberal Oct 15
          Replying to @johndavidbreen @Noahpinion

          One is accurate, one is not. We have to move past opinion equals equally valid.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. John Breen‏ @johndavidbreen Oct 15
          Replying to @lakesideliberal @Noahpinion

          Ah. And I suppose the truth is that whichever side you oppose was the first to defect?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Black Panther 2018  💥‏ @lakesideliberal Oct 15
          Replying to @johndavidbreen @Noahpinion

          You're injecting causality for something that I would refer to the historical record for. I would draw a conclusion about whom you support from that, but, thankfully, it doesn't matter overmuch.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. John Breen‏ @johndavidbreen Oct 15
          Replying to @lakesideliberal @Noahpinion

          So would whichever side you oppose, friend. I hope you can see why this “who defected first” bit actually doesn’t help.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Black Panther 2018  💥‏ @lakesideliberal Oct 15
          Replying to @johndavidbreen @Noahpinion

          It does if you want to avoid the problem of the non-defector side realizing a suboptimal outcome via 1. Conditioning the opponent that defection works 2. During the "unilateral disarmament" round(s), losing "points" -- seats, judgeships, etc.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Black Panther 2018  💥‏ @lakesideliberal Oct 15
          Replying to @lakesideliberal @johndavidbreen @Noahpinion

          Remember, the prisoner's dilemma is a *simplified* model for this dynamic. In truth, the real-world consequences actually impact the results of future rounds (see: 2000 elections).

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 9 more replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2018 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info