This is a rare completely wrong thread from @noahpinion. This tweet is untrue: US emissions have declined, but not thru explicit govt leadership, which means we didn't engage in a collective action that can be seen by others as "leading". /1https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1051675213375528960 …
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I think the fact that the US withdrew from Kyoto under GWB, demonstrating from the start that there would be no serious collective global emissions-reduction standards, may be the single biggest reason nothing has happened.
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I think the idea that China's emissions would have grown significantly less than they did if the U.S. hadn't withdrawn from Kyoto is an obvious example of magical thinking and illusion-of-control.
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That's a lack of political imagination. I have no idea whether Chinese emissions would have grown significantly less to date, but we would have the framework for international environmental regulation we need now, but which instead never came into existence.
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Yes, perhaps if we simply apply *more* magic, the magic will work...
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International treaties and norms of interstate conduct are not "magic". For example, WTO treaty commitments are mostly observed, even though the enforcement procedures are woefully slow and inadequate.
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Look: you cannot try to impose standards on someone else, or make any serious demand that someone else follow standards, if there are no standards, and you don't follow any yourself.
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A) That is an assertion with no apparent evidence to back it up, B) "Imposing standards" is probably not the way to get results anyway, since each country faces such different challenges in reducing emissions, C) Please read my article and check my proposed policies!
End of conversation
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We're missing a big point, which is that we have a lot of clout because of our massive imports from China. We could recreate the global trading regime to leave those who didn't reduce out in the cold.
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If you read my article (or thread), you'd see that one of my suggestions is using our imports as leverage!
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Oops, sorry. I think that the headline of the thread is therefore liable to be misconstrued. More importantly, why aren't there sea level futures. Forward curve would give important signals to policymakers and private actors.
End of conversation
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no more magical than thinking perhaps Saudi Arabia wouldn't be dismembering journalists if anyone but Trump was in office.
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