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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      1/Here is a thread about climate change that's going to make a lot of people mad. Basically, America, on its own, has a LOT power to stop climate change than almost anyone admits.https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-14/china-is-the-climate-change-battleground …

      49 replies 360 retweets 725 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      2/China now emits far more CO2 than the U.S. It emits almost as much as Europe and the U.S. combined.pic.twitter.com/oRqWN4o8OS

      23 replies 209 retweets 330 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      3/In fact, even this huge disparity dramatically understates the degree to which China is in the driver's seat of climate change. China, being still much poorer than us, has much more room to grow its economy. Hence, the emissions gap will only grow larger.pic.twitter.com/01PggZMTcY

      5 replies 54 retweets 191 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      4/This leads to an uncomfortable but unavoidable fact: The battle to halt climate change will be won or lost in China. America's power - and thus, the power of American politicians, activists, businesses, etc. - to save the planet from climate catastrophe is very marginal.

      63 replies 345 retweets 1,009 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      5/This is just a fact. But it's an uncomfortable one for a people like Americans who are used to thinking that the world lives or dies at their command. Thus, I see many Americans desperately trying to preserve the illusion of control with respect to climate change.

      3 replies 52 retweets 237 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      6/The first way we Americans try to preserve the illusion of control is by bringing up moral arguments. We note that we emitted more carbon than China throughout history, and that our per capita emissions are higher. But of course the climate cares nothing for morality.

      10 replies 36 retweets 193 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      7/Another way we Americans try to preserve the illusion of control is by claiming that China is doing their part, China is reducing emissions, China has the problem under control, so we just need to focus on ourselves. This is, sadly, bullshit.https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/05/30/china-co2-carbon-climate-emissions-rise-in-2018/ …

      4 replies 77 retweets 284 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      8/A third way we Americans try to preserve the illusion of control is by claiming that America exports its emissions to China (by offshoring carbon-intensive industries). But in fact, this accounts for only a small piece of the rise in China's CO2 emissions.pic.twitter.com/4eeXBZh959

      5 replies 37 retweets 167 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      9/Of course, I screwed this whole thread up with a typo in the first tweet, which should have read "a LOT less power" instead of "a LOT power", but let's go on.

      4 replies 27 retweets 321 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      10/Another way we Americans try to preserve the illusion of control is by claiming that China will follow our lead on emissions - that if we cut emissions unilaterally, they'd follow suit. Of course, we've ALREADY cut emissions. Nobody followed our lead.

      11 replies 35 retweets 183 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

      11/Nor did China start slashing emissions after Kyoto, or after Paris. The idea that we Americans rule the world via our moral leadership is just another illusion of control.

      8:25 PM - 14 Oct 2018
      • 34 Retweets
      • 213 Likes
      • Panda Woman Concerned Floridian José Trejo maxim smyrnyi That guy Jackie Childs of Vandelay Industries albertgregersen Adam Gifford Frank 🇺🇸 #WeAreThePatriots 🇺🇸
      10 replies 34 retweets 213 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          Noah Smith Retweeted Bloomberg Opinion

          12/Yet another way we try to preserve the illusion of control is by making the false claim that "degrowth" in rich countries will solve the problem. In fact, China already contributes far more to global growth than we do.https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1051242765173043200 …

          Noah Smith added,

          Bloomberg OpinionVerified account @bopinion
          China’s contribution to global growth will soon be double that of the U.S., and India’s will be larger than that of the entire euro zone https://bloom.bg/2yCNZbd  pic.twitter.com/2iptZJgSNm
          4 replies 33 retweets 127 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          13/And finally, the biggest and most important way we Americans try to preserve the illusion of control is by simple denialism. Many Americans pretend that climate science is more uncertain than it really is, or that climate scientists are dishonest, etc.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/28/opinion/climate-of-complete-certainty.html …

          13 replies 34 retweets 157 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          14/It's all just an illusion. America is NOT in the driver's seat when it comes to climate change, and it's time for us to acknowledge that horrible, gut-wrenching fact. Because it is a fact.

          7 replies 38 retweets 162 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          15/Does this mean America should abandon our efforts to fight climate change? Of course not!!! We should be taxing carbon, building green infrastructure, researching green energy technology, etc.!

          9 replies 32 retweets 198 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          16/BUT, on our own, this won't be nearly enough. We need to do all we can to encourage China to decarbonize. This includes sharing all of our green energy tech with China, and even trying to pay them to decarbonize.pic.twitter.com/nVkquYUTAF

          11 replies 38 retweets 189 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          17/It probably also includes other, less friendly and positive incentives.pic.twitter.com/rVbNtSW9a3

          3 replies 20 retweets 117 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 14

          18/But the horrible truth is, even all of these incentives probably have only a marginal ability to sway China's decisions. Like it or not, the future of our planet is in the hands of some folks in Beijing. (end)

          51 replies 70 retweets 222 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam Nash‏Verified account @adamnash Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          ... the one place where we could likely lead is in aggressively funding technological counter-measures to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere. Target net zero emissions by 2100, rather than flatlining at current rates.

          6 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
        3. 1 more reply
        1. David Chase‏ @Dr2chase Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          How effective do you think 1 child per family was, by blunting population growth, relative to other GHG reduction efforts? Looks like 30-50% population reduction, depending how you count.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Brian Heligman‏ @BrianTHeligman Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Americans export technological progress. Something like a carbon tax incentives further development in important tech, which is adopted/stolen by Chinese

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. majorajam‏ @majorajam Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          If moral leadership didn’t matter there wouldn’t be an RT. Truth is global consensus on what is & isn’t moral is everything when it comes to soft power. The US used to have a near monopoly on shaping that, but Bush cast it aside. Trump has lit it on fire & is pissing on the ashes

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Madhusudhan‏ @mchellap Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          This idea of American moral leadership is a quaint delusion found only within the boundaries of the US. But delusion isn't new even to academic circles - seeing essays recasting Kissinger as a tortured idealist! After a lifetime of mocking idealism in FP.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. polsknowls‏ @polsknowls Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          then we transform our economy in ways you can't predict, which will inevitably cause China to have to respond to our new economy. essentially, your thread is just something you and your elite friends want to tell yourself to prevent the inevitable. sorry to bear bad news.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick Oct 14
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          The graphs do show a plateau of emissions in China. Why did it stop increasing?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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