China isn't quite as mean as the Soviet Union, but it's four times bigger (relative to us), and a hell of a lot more economically competent.https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1050915857445113857 …
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1/ 1/ Wait, are you saying that, if you compare (1) US military vs USSR military in 1958 vs (2) US military vs China military in 2018, that Chinese military is 8 times the threat that USSR military was? If so then what possible evidence could you have for that claim?
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2/ Current US Military is vastly superior to Chinese military. Situation vs USSR was a much closer thing. Also, when you say that they are 4 times bigger, it appears that you are referring to their population. Really, you think that is a decisive factor?
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Yeah population is a hugely important factor. Hitler's army was better but the Soviets crushed him. The Confederacy had all the experienced officers but the Union ground them down. It's not always decisive but it often tells in the end.
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USSR's economy was never close to ours in size. China's is already bigger in PPP terms and is approaching us in nominal terms. That makes a huge difference. If China chose to spend a USSR-like % of its GDP on its military it would vastly overshadow everyone else.
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Could China beat us in a war today? Depends on the kind of war. Could China beat us in a protracted, Cold War-like struggle, where total spending power matters a lot? I'd say they have a much better chance than the Soviets did of winning that sort of multi-decade contest, yeah.
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1/ This is utterly incoherent. The reason that China has so much more spending power than the soviet union is that, under Deng's influence they have done the OPPOSITE of what the soviets did -- rather than a "cold war-like struggle" they have embraced the global economy
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2/ and free trade. I am struggling to be civil because I find it inexcusable and professionally irresponsible for you as an economist, and professor of economics to be making these claims trying to stir up jingoism against China.
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How much China wants to kick the US’s butt depends on how much they feel the US is getting into their grill. It’s not as categorically consistent a sentiment as with the Soviet Union.
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It’s like a less intense version of the 19th century British-German rivalry that’s also geographically more spaced out.
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I think this is the best historical analogy, yeah.
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Wish the analogy were more like tennis, Federer and Rafa, who’s the GOAT? Each capable of beating the other any given day, but can play doubles together too.
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That was the dream. Not sure the window is still there for that though, but maybe we can pull still things back if there’s a sustained effort....
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in a lot of the trade war coverage, I read a lot of dismissive tone, i.e. US can put the screws on China and China can't really retaliate, etc. This misses an important point: Chinese leaders will use this to stoke Chinese nationalism & tie US to European Imperialist tradition.
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"They're afraid of us" and "They want to keep holding us down" are really powerful messages for an ascending power. It can also lead to a really messy situation a la Nippon 1930s/40s, etc.
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1/ What's most troublesome about this line of thought from you is not your cringeworthy misunderstandings of military history (if population is such a crucial factor what about China losing wars to Japan and to Vietnam?). What is even more troublesome is you are ignoring
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2/ a far more important difference between US:USSR vs US:China -- and that is the economic links are MUCH stronger in the latter case. There is vastly more trade between US and China than there ever was between US and USSR, and it is astonishing that you as an economist would
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3/ ignore the significance of that. It is a WONDERFUL thing for the world that there is this amount of trade between the two largest economies. Rather than focus on that, you instead focus on exaggerating the military threat. We should be focused on how better to COOPERATE with
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4/ China. Not glibly talking about how likely they are to be able to "kick our butt."
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Possibly. We also rated the military power and political stability of Soviet Russia extremely highly. It was only in hindsight their limitations began to be fully understood. Its possible this is also true with China.
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Totally agree. Lived in China and the TV is f'd up historical dramas about all the countries that hurt China. They don't say that the greatest killer of Chinese by far was Mao Tse Tung. Artificial famines killed 40-70 million. More than all foreigners put together.
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