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Noahpinion's profile
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion

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Noah SmithVerified account

@Noahpinion

Bloomberg Opinion writer. Elected "top neoliberal shill" of 2018. Occasionally posts anime gifs.

San Francisco, CA
bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined April 2011

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    1. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 12

      Noah Smith Retweeted Bloomberg Opinion

      China isn't quite as mean as the Soviet Union, but it's four times bigger (relative to us), and a hell of a lot more economically competent.https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1050915857445113857 …

      Noah Smith added,

      Bloomberg OpinionVerified account @bopinion
      "The Chinese geopolitical dream is not revolution or conquest; it is simply a much weaker America," writes @tylercowen https://bloom.bg/2PzSb2R 
      6 replies 26 retweets 108 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 12

      So, yeah, maybe China wants to kick our butts only 40% as much as the USSR wanted to, but they're like 700% more able to kick our butts.

      6:40 PM - 12 Oct 2018
      • 15 Retweets
      • 103 Likes
      • Max Kaehn Alex Lane Rettig CyberLuddite sharp Neiman Marxist Tommy Nicholas Geoffrey Cline Jonathan dumey
      16 replies 15 retweets 103 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          1/ 1/ Wait, are you saying that, if you compare (1) US military vs USSR military in 1958 vs (2) US military vs China military in 2018, that Chinese military is 8 times the threat that USSR military was? If so then what possible evidence could you have for that claim?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @adamdavidlong @Noahpinion

          2/ Current US Military is vastly superior to Chinese military. Situation vs USSR was a much closer thing. Also, when you say that they are 4 times bigger, it appears that you are referring to their population. Really, you think that is a decisive factor?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 12
          Replying to @adamdavidlong

          Yeah population is a hugely important factor. Hitler's army was better but the Soviets crushed him. The Confederacy had all the experienced officers but the Union ground them down. It's not always decisive but it often tells in the end.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion @adamdavidlong

          USSR's economy was never close to ours in size. China's is already bigger in PPP terms and is approaching us in nominal terms. That makes a huge difference. If China chose to spend a USSR-like % of its GDP on its military it would vastly overshadow everyone else.

          3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion @adamdavidlong

          Could China beat us in a war today? Depends on the kind of war. Could China beat us in a protracted, Cold War-like struggle, where total spending power matters a lot? I'd say they have a much better chance than the Soviets did of winning that sort of multi-decade contest, yeah.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          1/ This is utterly incoherent. The reason that China has so much more spending power than the soviet union is that, under Deng's influence they have done the OPPOSITE of what the soviets did -- rather than a "cold war-like struggle" they have embraced the global economy

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @adamdavidlong @Noahpinion

          2/ and free trade. I am struggling to be civil because I find it inexcusable and professionally irresponsible for you as an economist, and professor of economics to be making these claims trying to stir up jingoism against China.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        9. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Lei Gong‏ @gonglei89 Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          How much China wants to kick the US’s butt depends on how much they feel the US is getting into their grill. It’s not as categorically consistent a sentiment as with the Soviet Union.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Lei Gong‏ @gonglei89 Oct 12
          Replying to @gonglei89 @Noahpinion

          It’s like a less intense version of the 19th century British-German rivalry that’s also geographically more spaced out.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Noah Smith‏Verified account @Noahpinion Oct 12
          Replying to @gonglei89

          I think this is the best historical analogy, yeah.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        5. Damien Ma‏Verified account @damienics Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion @gonglei89

          Wish the analogy were more like tennis, Federer and Rafa, who’s the GOAT? Each capable of beating the other any given day, but can play doubles together too.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Lei Gong‏ @gonglei89 Oct 12
          Replying to @damienics @Noahpinion

          That was the dream. Not sure the window is still there for that though, but maybe we can pull still things back if there’s a sustained effort....

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Ettaroo‏ @ettaroo Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          in a lot of the trade war coverage, I read a lot of dismissive tone, i.e. US can put the screws on China and China can't really retaliate, etc. This misses an important point: Chinese leaders will use this to stoke Chinese nationalism & tie US to European Imperialist tradition.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Ettaroo‏ @ettaroo Oct 12
          Replying to @ettaroo @Noahpinion

          "They're afraid of us" and "They want to keep holding us down" are really powerful messages for an ascending power. It can also lead to a really messy situation a la Nippon 1930s/40s, etc.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          1/ What's most troublesome about this line of thought from you is not your cringeworthy misunderstandings of military history (if population is such a crucial factor what about China losing wars to Japan and to Vietnam?). What is even more troublesome is you are ignoring

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @adamdavidlong @Noahpinion

          2/ a far more important difference between US:USSR vs US:China -- and that is the economic links are MUCH stronger in the latter case. There is vastly more trade between US and China than there ever was between US and USSR, and it is astonishing that you as an economist would

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @adamdavidlong @Noahpinion

          3/ ignore the significance of that. It is a WONDERFUL thing for the world that there is this amount of trade between the two largest economies. Rather than focus on that, you instead focus on exaggerating the military threat. We should be focused on how better to COOPERATE with

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Oct 12
          Replying to @adamdavidlong @Noahpinion

          4/ China. Not glibly talking about how likely they are to be able to "kick our butt."

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. Jeremy‏ @outandaboutjc1 Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Possibly. We also rated the military power and political stability of Soviet Russia extremely highly. It was only in hindsight their limitations began to be fully understood. Its possible this is also true with China.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Alex‏ @Alex16047584 Oct 12
          Replying to @Noahpinion

          Totally agree. Lived in China and the TV is f'd up historical dramas about all the countries that hurt China. They don't say that the greatest killer of Chinese by far was Mao Tse Tung. Artificial famines killed 40-70 million. More than all foreigners put together.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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